The Weekend That Was (Wildcard Weekend Recap)

Houston Texans 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

I picked Houston to win this game but I wasn’t totally confident in them because I didn’t trust Matt Schaub. But I didn’t trust Andy Dalton more. It was kind of like asking me to choose between a punch to the face or a kick to the “boys”. Either way, this is going to hurt and I’m not going to be happy with my decision. Schaub sucked but Dalton sucked that much more on Saturday. Nice season for Cincy but they just didn’t have what it takes to win a playoff game on the road, even if Gary Kubiak was coaching the opponent. Marvin Lewis had a great defensive gameplan to stop Schaub and Andre Johnson, but Arian Foster and his 32 carries and 140 yards killed the Bengals. Andy Dalton never looked comfortable and he played that way. He completed 14 of 30 passes and only averaged 4.2 yards per completion. You don’t need to do math to tell thats less than 50 percent right? The Bengals were 0 for 9 on 3^rd downs and only mustarded up 198 yards of total offense. I knew they’d struggle to score and that’s why I didn’t pick them. All the Bengals had was AJ Green and he could only do so much.

Next Up: The Patriots smoked Houston at Foxborough, 42-14 (And it wasn’t even that close.) in week 14, in what Houston called, “the biggest game in franchise history”.  Well I’d surmise to say this game is a lot more important. If Marvin Lewis, a guy that's never won a playoff game as a head coach mind you, can out coach Kubiak what do you think Belichick does, having had two weeks to prepare for the Texans.

Green Bay Packers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

“Joe Webb is a real x-factor” words said BY NO ONE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. If I didn’t have faith in a guy with “Christ” in his first name, why the hell would I have any in a guy that didn’t throw a single pass all year long? I couldn’t believe the way Criss Collinsworth was talking up Joe Webb in NBC’s pregame broadcast. C’mon son, like he really had a shot to win. That was the greatest sell job since Daniel Day-Lewis tricked people out of their land in There Will Be Blood. I’d officially like to nominate Collinsworth for this year’s Best Actor Academy Award. Backups are backups because they suck. All you need to know about Joe Webb is this; no matter how bad it got, (And it got REALLY, REALLY BAD AT TIMES) Joe Webb COULDN’T beat out Christian “If I were wearing a Jets #6 you’d think I was Mark Sanchez” Ponder. NOT EVEN FOR A GAME, A HALF, OR A SINGLE DRIVE did Joe Webb challenge Christian Ponder for his starting job. Not much to say about Green Bay other than they had seen enough of Adrian Peterson to figure out a way to finally stop him. (He only ran for 99 yards and his longest rush was for 18 yards.) Even with Ponder, Peterson needed to go “Super Saiyan” for the Vikings to have a chance. The Packers bottled him up all night and forced Joe Webb to beat them. The Packers look just like they did in 2010 when everyone got healthy at year’s end and they won it all. Rodgers picked the Vikings apart all night to the tune of passing to a record ten different receivers in a playoff game. Green Bay looks ready to go and they have the best QB left on the NFC side of the playoffs by miles.

Next Up: The 49ers beat the Packers in Week One but I gave that no thought when I was picking this game. If Russell Wilson and Tom Brady could find holes in that San Francisco defense, you got to think Rodgers would. I’m still not sure if I trust Colin Kaepernick here. The more I think about it, I don’t. In the end, when a game feels like a toss up to me, I go with the QB I trust more. (See Cincy vs. Houston.)

Baltimore Ravens 24 - Indianapolis Colts 9

Ray Lewis playing his last game at home > Playing on the road for your cancer survivor head coach. Last week when I wrote that the Ravens would lose in the first round, I didn’t have the knowledge of Ray Lewis retiring before I made that pick. I still gave the Colts the edge for a few reasons. The Ravens looked like crap down the stretch, Andrew Luck stopped throwing INTs and even though I knew the crowd would be jazzed in the first quarter after Lewis’ pregame antics, I thought Indy would settle in, but I didn’t know it was going to be like this. (Hell, I wanted to hit somebody on Indianapolis after I saw it.) The Colts moved the ball pretty well (419 Total Yards vs. the Ravens 441) but they just couldn’t cash in with TDs. The Ravens showed a real commitment to running the ball by rushing for 172 yards on 32 carries. Anquan Boldin played out of his mind grabbing 5 receptions for 145 yards and one TD. When it’s all said and done, Ray Lewis’ passion and energy infused a level of urgency in the Ravens that I hadn’t seen in them all year long. I’ll save my thoughts on Ray Lewis’ career and legacy after the season, when, or IF he retires. (He better freaking retire. You don’t get to play THAT card more than once.) Ray Lewis, winner, champion, leader…cancer survivor… murderer? (Relax it’s a joke, it’s a joke!)

Next Up: I really wanted to see Luck go up against Peyton Manning but Ray Lewis going to Denver isn’t a bad consolation prize. Their "battles" were always legendary and its only fitting Lewis has to go through Manning to keep himself out of early retirement. The Ravens got man handled by the Broncos 34 to 17 back in week 15, but that was without Lewis and without this newfound motivation they have now. It’s an added dimension I didn’t know I'd have to account for but they aren’t going to be in Baltimore, where they feed off the AFC’s best home crowd. (Like I said, the Colts racked up a lot of yards, moved the ball easily and were on the field for 37 minutes but just they kept scoring FGs. Going out on a limb and saying Manning turns those into TDs.) The Broncos and the old Colts QB will be ready to go and I think the whole Raven’s team retiring wouldn’t help them get a win in Denver.

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Washington Redskins 14

This game will always be a great “what if” to me. I picked the Seahawks to win even before I knew RG3 wasn’t 100%. The Seahawks are the NFL’s most balanced team and I thought they had the athletes to contain RG3. He clearly wasn’t himself and the Redskins didn’t have a shot if he wasn’t the dual threat we’ve seen all year long. He looked even worst than he did last week. It’s clear the Redskins “sold their souls” to win against the Cowboys in the season finale and RG3 didn’t have enough to get it done on Sunday. RG3 is a grown man and if he says he’s good to go then you give him a chance to play. I don’t think Shanahan made a mistake by sticking with him because Griffin III said it himself, even when you’re healthy you’re taking a risk playing football. RG3 went on to say, he was the best option at QB for the Redskins and he was right. (People seem to forget that backup rookie QB Kirk Cousins had that great comeback against a then choking Ravens team and he played his only full game against the Browns.) Russell Wilson gets mad props for staying grounded and leading the Seahawks’ comeback. (24 unanswered points, 340+ Yards of offense after the 1^st quarter.) Even though RG3 was hurt, Seattle made the changes on defense to shut the Redskins out for the rest of the game and held them to 74 TOTAL YARDS after the 1^st quarter. That’s championship level defense right there and Wilson’s got to have all the confidence in the world now. The Seahawks aren’t going to be an easy out for anyone.

Next Up: It looks like the stars are aligning and we’re headed for a Green Bay vs. Seattle rematch at Lambeau Field because I have ZERO faith in the Atlanta Falcons at home. There’s a reason Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal have been "foaming at the mouth" to bet against them in the playoffs. The Falcons just aren’t a proven playoff team and for someone with the nickname “Matty Ice”, Matt Ryan hasn’t played very “icy” in the playoffs. (0-3 with more INTs than TDs and he hasn’t passed for over 200 yards in any of those losses.) The Seahawks have won seven straight now and will go into Atlanta being the first top-tier defense the Falcons have faced since week two against the Broncos. I’ll start believing in Atlanta when they give me a reason to and as of yet, they haven’t.

Ode to the Fallen – 1st Annual NFL Year-End Review: NFC PT. 1

Click Here for AFC PT. 2

Why do I love football? Because in one game, just one game, these are some of the things we saw: A late comeback, a pulse pounding last minute drive, a game-winning field goal, the Packers drop to the 3 seed and lose the first round-bye, the 49ers get the 2 seed and first round bye, a guy become the 7^th guy to rush for 2,000 yards, that same guy come just nine yards shy of the NFL rushing record, the Vikings make the playoffs and most importantly, THE BEARS MISS THE PLAYOFFS! All those things happened in ONE GAME! I love the NBA and I “like” MLB, (My team is the Chicago Cubs so I’ve been a little out on baseball lately.) but drama like that, only happens in the NFL. As the curtain closes on the 2012 NFL regular season, I’ll tell you the five biggest things I learned and I’ll give you my two-cents on each team. (Maybe more depending on the team of course. Jacksonville fans, it’s going to be two cents.)

1.     .      You got NO CHANCE if you don’t have a QB. Think about all the teams that really sucked this year. Outside of a few teams (And one had to be MY TEAM) with a “decent” QB, you could point to a total dumpster fire at the QB position as the main reason for a large amount of the trouble those teams ran into during 2012. When you see the way Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III played this season, there’s no reason you can’t believe that your team can’t turn it around like that when you have the right guy pulling the trigger.
2.             Coaching matters a lot more than we thought. With every game the Saints lost, the amount they had to pay Sean Payton went up about a million dollars. With coaches like Andy Reid, Norv Turner, and Romeo Crennel finding new ways to lose games, the value of quality coaching is more evident then ever. (That and the fact that 7 head coaches got fired on the Monday after the season ended. You’d think the NFL was Enron the way teams were handing people their walking papers.)
3.             It’s becoming impossible to defend the middle of the field and play safety. With the NFL cracking down on hits to the head, it’s become almost a guaranteed flag if a guy gets hit too hard. Even when defenders led with their shoulders they were getting flagged this year. The referees clearly believe that if a guy gets hit hard and gets up slowly it’s a penalty, regardless if they can see what happened or not.
4.           The NFL totally blew the whole “BountyGate” thing. They never had a shred of “real” evidence against the players and even the old Commissioner, couldn’t let that slide like they, the NFL, thought he would. I do find the irony of Paul Tagliabue coming back and letting MORE players off the hook very sweet. (He’s someone who was always called out for being too soft on the players.)
5.             Real referees know what they’re doing. It’s the reason the Packers are playing this weekend. You just knew that game was coming back to haunt them.

NFC EAST

Washington Redskins (10-6) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

He's got a reason to be happy, as the Skins are
back in the playoff for the first time since 1999.

Simply put, the Redskins were so fun to watch this year. From his opening game, RG3 has been the league’s most electric player and must-see TV every time the Washington offense took the field. Having one seven straight games going into the playoffs, they’re definitely one of the league’s hottest teams. I credit the Shanahans for having the good sense to build their team’s offense around its best player. The Redskins ate teams alive all year with that spread option and no one's quite figured out how to stop it. I’ll be really interested to see them in the playoffs.  It’s the first time since the 1940’s that a team’s going into the playoffs with two rookies as it’s leading passer and rusher. Not bad for a team that had it’s own coach call them toast a few weeks ago.

New York Giants (9-7) Missed Playoffs

Hey, you know that really cool thing the Giants do every year where they “flip a switch”, get hot down the stretch and win the Super Bowl? Yeah, they didn’t do that this year. The Giants took that “wait till the playoffs” thing a bit too far this season. Eli didn’t look close to the Eli of last year. (Last year, he set an NFL record for the most 4^th quarter touchdowns in a season and threw for almost 5,000 yards. If it weren’t for the “other” QBs in New York he would have gotten crushed. He should send Sanchez and Tebow a freaking thank you cards.) The pass rush wasn’t nearly as dominant as it’s been in the pass few seasons and they honestly looked like a team that thought a little too highly of themselves. Funny thing, I’m sure this season motivates them to greatness next season, so look out in 2013.

Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Missed Playoffs

This look says it all.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The Cowboys play a season ending game that, if they win, gets them into the playoffs AND they lose said game. Let’s have an honest moment for a second; no one thought that the Cowboys were winning that game. It’s just not in their DNA. The Cowboys have been an accident waiting to happen all year long. (Pardon the pun because of thereal tragedy.) At the time of me writing this, they still have Tony Romo and Jason Garrett, and I don’t think either man gets them back to that Super Bowl level they want to be at. Their stadium always seems to be like a home game for the team they’re facing. Dez Bryant did finally play up to his potential though. He earned “warrior” status for playing the last few games with a broken finger. In the end, I’m not sure what the Cowboys need to do but they weren’t any closer to winning this year than they were last year. With Sean Payton getting locked up again by the Saints, I’m not sure there’s a “big” move to be made. I mean besides Jerry Jones stepping down and letting someone else run the team, but there's a better chance of me becoming the CEO of Apple than that happening.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-12) Missed Playoffs

You'll find a job, don't worry.

Damn, it seems like the Eagles should have been so much worst. Or at least they’re record should have been worst. Looking back at their schedule, they could have and SHOULD HAVE lost every game this season. Here are the winning scores of their four victories; 17-16 over Cleveland. (Needed a late TD to win.) 24-23 over Baltimore. (Needed another late TD to win.) 19-17 over the Giants. (Needed a late FG to win.) 23-21 over Jacksonville. (Needed a LAST PLAY OF THE GAME TD to win.) Four wins by a combined 6 points! Sadly, for all the “talent” they have I think they need a complete retooling of the roster. Anyone not named “McCoy” can get the hook if you ask me. All of the personal trouble he had to start the season aside, Andy Reid had to go. Sometimes you just need a new start and so does your team. This is the classic case of both parties needing a fresh start. Not sure who they get to take his place however. I’m sure he won’t be jobless very long and neither will his former QB Michael Vick because he’s out of Philly too. Vick was a turnover machine this year and I think we’re starting to see all of those hits finally take their toll on him. He can’t stay healthy, he doesn’t have the wheels he use to have, and he reads defenses about as well as a blind QB would. It’s going to be a long, long, offseason in Philly.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (11-5) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

This team looks scary good, lost to the Vikings not withstanding, and they honestly look primed for another championship run. Back in 2010, the Packers got healthy at the end of the season and rode that wave all the way to a Super Bowl. The defense is still super suspect and I don’t totally trust them to make a big stop when they need it. But the Packers do have the one thing on there team that no other team in the league has; Aaron “I can make any throw because I’m an alien and my arm isn’t from Earth” Rodgers. When you got the best QB in the league you always got a chance to win it all.

Minnesota Vikings (10-6) Wildcard, Playoff Berth

The rotting stinking corpse known as the 2012 Vikings were dragged into the playoffs by Superman. I mean Adrian Peterson. It seems like science has finally reached the point where they really can rebuild you and make you better. Peterson’s 2,097 rushing yards are second all-time and just 9 yards shy of the NFL record. All this, facing 8 to 9 man boxes and the opposing defenses’ complete and total knowledge that HE WAS GETTING THE BALL ON DAMN NEAR EVERYPLAY! That said, I don’t think the Vikings get past the Packers this weekend. Do you really think Christian Ponder wins a playoff game in Lambeau Field? (Only with the help of  “Christ” in his name that is.) Even though he’s been great all year and he was just great against them, I don’t see Peterson having another 200-yard day against Green Bay. Peterson may not have rush for the record but he ran the Vikings into the playoffs and he may have rushed himself into the league’s MVP award.

Chicago Bears (10-6) Missed Playoffs

It's a sad day when 10-6 gets you fired.

At first glance you’d think, “How can you fire a guy that was 10-6?” But looking deeper you’ll find out that the Bears only made the playoffs three times in Lovie Smith's nine seasons and only once in the last six. Ouch! Now in an economy like this, I normally wouldn’t say a “brother” should lose his job, but with a track record like that, no way was Lovie coming back. You can only change offensive coordinators so many times. I still like the pieces that the Bears have on the offensive side of the ball but the defense showed their age down the stretch and Jay Cultler got banged up again. Strange thing is, this team was once 7-1 and looking like a clear-cut Super Bowl contender. That seems like a really long time ago now.

Detroit Lions (4-12) Missed Playoffs

I’m a Lions fan and a friend asked me, “Hey what’s wrong with the Lions this year?” I laughed and said, “Nothing, they’re just the f***ing Lions!” The great season of a year ago didn’t fool me. Jim Schwartz survived the "bloodbath" on Monday but I’m not sure he should have. The Lions are incredibly undisciplined and that’s always a coaching problem. Although he did break a major receiving record, Calvin Johnson had the greatest garbage time stats season of all time. (Total empty calories in my opinion. ’11 Stats: 96 Catches 1,681 Yards and 16 TDs = 10 wins. ’12 Stats: 122 Catches 1,964 Yards 5 TDs = 4 wins.) I’m still not totally sold on Matt Stafford. He seems like he has all the physical tools to be a franchise QB, but that “it” factor seems to be missing. The Lions also need to improve their rushing attack to gain some balance on offense and upgrades on the defensive side of the ball wouldn’t hurt either. Never has a team seemed so close but yet so far.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (13-3) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

This team could have gone 16-0 and I still would not have believed in them. Atlanta’s been crushed too many times in the postseason for me to think anything they do in the regular season matters. Matt Ryan had a career year leading a very powerful aerial attack and he’s a borderline MVP candidate but they’re offense ranks 29^th in rushing. That’s a huge red flag going into the playoffs when you don’t have a QB named Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. Michael Turner is a shell of a shell of himself. Their defense is in the top half of the BACK of the NFL. Never a “good” thing, but they did seem to make a lot of timely stops this season. In the end, a very nice season but we’ve heard it all before Atlanta. Go win a game in the “second-season” and I’ll start taking you more seriously.

Carolina Panthers (7-9) Missed Playoffs

The Panthers seemed like the same team they were a season ago. The record was close, 6-10 a year ago versus 7-9 and another four-game win streak to close out the year again. Like last year, it took the Panthers a whole season to figure out how to actually “win” games. After looking more like “Clark Kent” in the beginning of the season, Cam Newton seemed to get into a groove down the stretch, but it was a little too late. I’d like to see them add a weapon or two in the off-season. Maybe a receiver because Steve Smith is getting up there in age. The DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart dual backfield has “backfired” and their defense was only “okay”. Not bad or good but just “okay. That’s good enough to win games and I think their close but their “losing seven out of eight games during the middle of the season and then running off four victories to end the year” strategy doesn’t seem to be a winning formula. I know, crazy that that doesn’t work huh.

New Orleans Saints (7-9) Missed Playoffs

He changed his name to changed to Sean "Pay-Him".

This season has been like a bad dream that the Saints just couldn’t wake up from. “BountyGate” pretty much doomed them from the start. As I mentioned in the top-five things I learned, coaching is really important. No way you lose one of the best coaches in the league and still be a playoff team. There’s a reason those guys, NFL coaches that is, make more than any other coaches in any other sport. Two greatest examples of the importance of coaching; Sean Payton this year and Bill Belichick making Matt Cassel look like a Pro-Bowler back in 2008. To me, the Saints are fine. The defense was never that good and Brees just threw for 5,000 yards… again and 40 plus TDs… again. He’s the first and only guy to do that in back-to-back seasons. All the Saints need is their head coach back.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) Missed Playoffs

At one point this season I really, really liked the Bucs. They had the whole “new coach comes from college and turns the team around in one year” thing going for them with Greg Schiano. (Think Jim Harbaugh with the 49ers last season.) At one point, they were 6-4, riding a four-game winning streak, Josh Freeman was looking like a Pro Bowler and then the wheels came off. They lost five of their last 6 games and looked really bad doing it. (They lost 41-0 to the Saints. They couldn’t score a point against the worst defense in the league. 10 friends and I can score a field goal on the Saints.) They have some really nice pieces on offense and they have the number one defense against the run but they were dead last against the past. When Aqib Talib was traded it was only a matter of time until their secondary fell completely apart. Sure that up in the draft and I think we’re looking at a playoff team next season.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

The 49ers may have punched their ticket to the Super Bowl when they moved Colin Kaepernick into the starting QB spot. God love Alex Smith but he’s just not going to get the 49ers over the hump and they knew it. It takes some balls to move the QB with the 3^rd highest QB rating in the league at the time out of the starting lineup but I really think it was the best move. Kaepernick makes you have to fear the 49ers offense a lot more than you would with Smith pulling the trigger. They have a top-five defense in all the key stats. (4^th against the pass and the run and 2^nd in points allowed.) That same defense did get “boat raced” by both Seattle and New England in back-to-back games at the end of the year but I still like them a lot. Not having to go to Seattle or Green Bay to win a playoff game really helps them and the taste of losing last year’s NFC Championship game still has to be motivating them.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) Wildcard, Playoff Berth

Wilson and the Seahawks look ready to roll.

I really, really want to have the guts to say that the Seahawks are going to win the Super Bowl. I love their defense. 6^th against the pass, 10^th against the rush and 1^st in points allowed. They can run the ball. 3^rd in rushing and Lynch finished 3^rd in rushing in the league. I love their QB. Russell Wilson, not Luck or RG3, finished with the most passing TDs for rookie QB. Seattle was in every game this season and they didn’t get blown out all year. The only, and I mean ONLY, reason I’m not picking them is they have to go on the road to win the Super Bowl as a wildcard team. That home-field advantage in Seattle is crazy. It’s almost college like. If they were at home they’d win it all or at least get there. I love their team and I LOVE Russell Wilson, but no way I’m picking a rookie QB to lead a wildcard team to the Super Bowl. I do think he can lead them past the Redskins. Both teams run a similar style of offense but I give the edge to the Seahawks because they have a better defense.

St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) Missed Playoffs

The Rams looked “okay” this season. A lot better than last year that’s for sure. I really like how they responded to Jeff Fisher as their head coach. He took a team that was at the back of the NFL last year and moved them into the middle of the pack. (18^th in passing, 19^th in rushing, 15^th against the pass and run.) But all I’ll say is click on this link and read the first paragraph about RG3 and the Rams.

Arizona Cardinals (5-11) Missed Playoffs

This team authored some of the worst, no, THE WORST quarterbacking I’ve ever seen at ANY level of football in my life. I really felt like I was going to see Larry Fitzgerald snap and start choking the QBs in the huddle at some point this season. They were the second worst team I saw all year long. (And yes, the Lions lost to them, snapping their nine-game losing streak. I need to stop now before I start ranting about the Lions again. UGH! I HATE THE LIONS!) I’m not totally sure Ken Whisenhunt should have been fired because he’s a good coach that's been saddled with really bad quarterbacks. You got to remember, when he had Kurt Warner the Cards made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons including a run to the Super Bowl.  Mind you, a Super Bowl that they almost won. He led the Arizona Cardinals to a Super Bowl! (RE READ THAT LAST SENTENCE.) I like a few of their pieces on defense, especially Patrick Peterson but they need a complete retooling on the offensive side of the ball. Dead last in rushing and 28^th in passing. I mean they need so many new parts on the offensive side of the ball it’s almost comical and a new QB is number one on that "needs list". Check the top of this post. NO QB… NO CHANCE IN HELL… PERIOD.

Thanks for reading and don't forget to subscribe and share the blog. Join in the discussion by leaving a comment below. Follow me on twitter @ParisLay. Until next time... Enjoy the View!

Click Here for AFC PT. 2

NFL M.anning V.erus P.eterson

One will win, but who?

On Monday, I profiled the great play of the NFL rookie quarterbacks and while they have been great, these next guys I’ll be talking about are the cream of the crop. In case you happened to miss the title of this particular post, I really think the NFL MVP comes down to two guys. Sometimes things are just the way they are, but you still like to talk about or consider the other options, if only to confirm the right choice. The right choice IS Peterson or Manning. Manning or Peterson, if you prefer.

REAL TALK: “You have about as much of a shot of winning this award as I do, but you actually play and if I didn’t at least talk about you, I’d feel bad about it later.”

CODE: Honorable Mention

JJ Watt (Houston Texans, DE)

Team Record: (12-2)

Key Stats: 19.5 Sacks, 74 Total Tackles, 15 Pass Defended

Back To The Future is killing it at the box-office, The Cosby Show is America’s number one TV show, “That’s What Friends Are For” is the hottest song and I was born. All these things happened in 1986, which also happens to be the last time a defensive player won MVP. (Lawrence Taylor had to have one of the greatest defensive seasons of all time, at the time, to win the award. Offenses weren’t nearly as dynamic then and Taylor’s 20.5 sacks should be surpassed by both Watt and Aldon Smith.) The list of NFL MVPs is a "who's who" list that only reads quarterback and running back but if any guy on the defensive end of the ball had at least a case to be made it’s Watt.

Watt is good, but he won't win MVP.

Watt’s 19.5 sacks, 39 quarterback hits (almost 10 clear of the second guy) and 33 tackles for loss lead the NFL (10 clear of the second guy). He’s easily the most feared defender in the NFL right now and he’s the one guy the quarterback always looks for before the play starts. Each week during the NFL broadcasts of Texans’ games, the announcers are always talking about the crazy ways that teams try to prepare for him. Taking team assistants and having them wave tennis rackets and brooms to simulate Watt’s super human ability to bat passes down at the line of scrimmage.

The most unreal stat I found when researching Watt was this next one. Watt’s 15 passes defended easily leads all NFL defensive linemen, he’s in the top-ten of that stat and he’s the ONLY player among the league leaders that isn’t a cornerback or safety. You literally have to get to the 48^th qualifier to find another position player outside of a cornerback or safety. (It’s London Fletcher at linebacker and he’s only at 9 passes defended.) Think about this, he’s the only guy in the top ten of a stat that’s dominated by players who’s job it is to always have passes thrown at them.

REAL TALK: “Yawn, You’re having another MVP caliber season but I think it’s technically illegal in at least four states to not mention you in any MVP discussion.”

CODE: 3^rd in the Voting

Tom Brady (New England Patriots, QB)

Team Record: (10-4)

Key Stats: 4,276 PY (Passing Yards) 30 TDs 8 INTs

Talking about Tom Brady being a MVP candidate any year at this point is like talking about Jenna Haze being a candidate for “starlet” of the year. Her yearly “credentials” means she’ll always make a good choice. (If the reference has you a little lost Google “Jenna Haze”. But be warned, if you have Google Chrome or Safari use an “incognito” window or privacy browsing…. Hint, hint, wink, wink… ah screw it, she’s a porn star and her “work” is just as dependable and sterling as Brady’s is each year.) Before 2007, Tom Brady was a Hall of Fame QB that was an above average game manager that won Super Bowls on great defensive teams. He was like a much, much, much, MUCH better version of Troy Aikman or Terry Bradshaw. He wasn’t a “stats guy” just a really good QB that played better when it mattered and never made the big mistakes that killed his team. Like the 70's Steelers, the defensive was always the backbone of those Patriots teams and like those Bradshaw, Brady was good enough to not screw it up. Then he morphed into Peyton Manning. Putting up monster stats and becoming the headliner of the league’s most powerful offensive attack.

Brady is in typically MVP-form.

The key stats for QBs always seem to have Brady’s name in the top five and for good reason.  He’s one of only four QBs with 30 plus TDs and one of only two with less than 10 INTs. (I’ll be talking about that guy later.) Brady leads the league’s number one offense with a surgeon’s precision. New England’s 506 total points are almost 100 more than the next team. (Denver has 409 and another guy that I’ll be talking about later is leading them.) They’re also the only team in the league averaging over 30 points per game.

The quarterback has the ball in his hands more than anyone else, so you can say the team’s turnover differential is all on them. When QBs like Mark Sanchez are giving away INTs and fumbles like free candy, you have to realize that a team’s QB is almost in total control of his team’s turnover differential. New England’s plus 22 turnover differential is way clear of the next team in line, they’re the only team at 20 plus and if that’s all quarterback that means that’s all Tom Brady.

REAL TALK: “You’re probably the best player on the planet at you’re position and that alone will always make you a good choice as MVP even if other guys may be playing better.”

CODE: 2^nd in the Voting

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers, QB)

Team Record: (10-4)

Key Stats: 104.7 Passer Rating, 3,588 PY 32 TDs 8 INTs

I see a strange similarity between Aaron Rodgers and Michael Jordan. Wait a minute it’s going to make sense, just stay with me. I’m 26 years old, so I did get to see Michael Jordan play and I remember it. Michael Jordan could do things no other player in the league could do. The way he moved and the amazing feats of "grace in the air" he pulled off would leave you breathless. He put up amazing numbers and was always in the discussion for MVP. Even though he was clearly the best player in the league in 1992-93 and1996-97, he wasn’t the NBA MVP. You could have given him the award both of those years and no one would really complain. But that’s not what MVP is about. It’s about the best player that does the most to help his team win in that given year. (At least that’s what it’s about in my opinion.)

While he's been really good, Rodger's numbers
aren't as superhuman this year.

I saw at least three throws in the Green Bay game versus the Bears last week that I’m 100% sure only Rodgers could have made. The best was an amazing back shoulder throw for an eight-yard TD to James Jones. The DB was riding Jones’ back and the moment Jones turned his head, the ball was right there, in the only spot where Jones could get it and the DB couldn’t. The guy is simply the best thrower of the football on the planet. On the run throws, off balance throws, short throws, back shoulder throws, deep ball throws, breadbasket drop-in throws. The guy can make any throw at anytime. Remember that stat where I said only two guys have 30 plus TDs and less that 10 INTs? This is that other guy. His 104.7 passer rating leads the NFL and his 32 TDs are second.

He gets extra kudos because Rodgers shoulders the load on a team that would otherwise fall apart without him. The receivers are great but Green Bay’s running game has been about as useful as it would be if I were their starting running back. They have no balance, which means you should be able to stop them because you know they’re always going to be passing. That’s led to him being sacked a NFL high 45 times. When he drops back, he pretty much knows he’s going to get hit but he still gets the job done. The other guys right behind Rogers in sacks all have 14 plus INTs. It tells you those guys let the pressure get to them, it forces them into rushing passes and making careless mistakes. That means, Rodgers holds his own, gets up, comes back for more and still makes the right decision.

REAL TALK: “I have no idea how to separate you two, so I say let’s lock you guys in a shipping container with an old rusty pipe and whoever walks out wins the award.”

CODE: Tied for 1^st in the Voting

Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos, QB)

Team Record (11-3)

Key Stats: 4,016 PY 31 TDs 10 INTs 67.9 Completion Percentage

Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings, RB)

Team Record (8-6)

Key Stats: 1,812 Rushing Yard, 6.3 Yards Per Carry, 11 TDs

When I started to do the research for each of the guys right above, this got a lot harder to do. Yes, cases CAN BE made for Rogers and Brady, but Peterson and Manning are the clear favorites for NFL MVP this year. (They just pass the "eye" test and the "this team wouldn't halfway look the same without this guy" test.) This is also the first time those same two guys are also the front-runners for NFL Comeback Player of the Year and it's helped elevate them in the MVP discussion. Their great play is being highlighted by the fact that each one is coming off major surgery in the off-season. Some predicted that neither man would even play at all, much less at THIS level.  For each strong case for Peterson and Manning, something can be said against each case, and cases can be made against those cases against them. (I know I’m confused too, but stay with me.)

For Manning: He’s led his team to nine straight wins, a division title, a first round bye and possibly the number one seed in the AFC playoffs. (It could happen. Houston is a game up in the win column and they hold the tie-breaker should they and Denver finish with the same record via a win over Denver in Week 3, but Houston finishes with the Vikings and Colts. Two teams fighting to just make the playoffs, while Denver is facing off against the Browns and the Chiefs. Two very winnable games.)

Manning has Denver primed for a Super Bowl run.

Against Manning: Tebow made the playoffs with the same team last year, so you know there’s talent on Denver’s roster. Of those nine wins in a row, only two were over teams with winning records. Cincinnati, always a “good” bad team lately but still a bad team. Baltimore, which is proving to be much worst than we all thought and they’re currently falling apart. Denver lost each of their games against “real” competition, Houston, Atlanta and New England.

Case against the “Case Against”(If that makes sense): A win is a win, no matter the opponent.  Manning is elevating the play of good players, making them great players and more PRODUCTIVE ON THE FIELD, something Tebow could never do. (Tebow does motivate players to play HARDER but that doesn’t mean they’re playing better.) The losses against “real” competition were in the beginning of the year, when Manning was finding himself and Denver wasn’t playing at nearly the level they are now.

For Peterson: In a league where we had three guys pass for 5,000 yards plus last year and "workload running backs" are going the way of the do-do bird, he’s leading the league in rushing, he’s about to eclipse 2,000 yards and he has a real chance at breaking the all time mark for rushing yards in a season. He’s almost single handedly keeping Minnesota in the playoff hunt and all this on a team where he’s the ONLY offensive threat.

Against Peterson: His team could very well miss the playoffs and that’s never good if you’re supposed to be the MVP. For all the yards that he’s rushed for, he only has 11 TDs and it doesn’t even lead the league.

In a few weeks, Peterson could be the NFL Single Season Rushing King.

Case against the “Case Against”: Peterson is saddled with one of the league’s worst QBs in Christian Ponder. Unlike the other players I’ve talked about, Peterson’s team didn’t make the playoffs last year and they weren’t expected to this year, so the fact they’re even "in the hunt" is something that can't be overlooked. While the touchdowns aren’t there, Peterson leads the league in yards per carry and runs of 20 yards plus with 20. The next guy in line only has 11. (IMPORTANT NOTE: Peterson is above Dickerson’s record pace in ALL the major categories for a RB at the same point in the season. More yards. 1,812 vs. 1,792. More yards per carry. 6.2 vs. 5.4 and tied with 11 TDs. Peterson’s trailing in one category however. He has 289 carries to Dickerson’s 326. He’s literally done MORE with LESS opportunities… In a passing league. I know, crazy.)

So there you have it, too close to call. Peterson’s lack of team success could ultimately hurt him as the voter fatigue could hurt Manning. (Manning already has four MVPs)

Lastly, I think my thoughts on who should win the comeback player could help decide who wins the MVP. To me, it’s all about what you’re coming back from. (I know Manning did miss all of last year and Peterson didn’t, but Peterson is still coming back from a season-ending injury and did it way quicker than we all thought. So they both are true candidates to receive the award to get that out of the way.) What’s more important to your overall quality of life, your neck or your knee? If you say knee look at it like this, I never saw anyone get killed in the movies by having their knee snapped. That being said, I’d rather have my knee worked on three times a year until the end of time, than have my neck worked on even once in life. One of these guys is coming back from that… four times… and twice in one year.

Thanks for reading and don't forget to subscribe and share the blog. Join in the discussion by leaving a comment below. Follow me on twitter @ParisLay. Until next time... Enjoy the View!