The Weekend That Was (Wildcard Weekend Recap)

Houston Texans 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

I picked Houston to win this game but I wasn’t totally confident in them because I didn’t trust Matt Schaub. But I didn’t trust Andy Dalton more. It was kind of like asking me to choose between a punch to the face or a kick to the “boys”. Either way, this is going to hurt and I’m not going to be happy with my decision. Schaub sucked but Dalton sucked that much more on Saturday. Nice season for Cincy but they just didn’t have what it takes to win a playoff game on the road, even if Gary Kubiak was coaching the opponent. Marvin Lewis had a great defensive gameplan to stop Schaub and Andre Johnson, but Arian Foster and his 32 carries and 140 yards killed the Bengals. Andy Dalton never looked comfortable and he played that way. He completed 14 of 30 passes and only averaged 4.2 yards per completion. You don’t need to do math to tell thats less than 50 percent right? The Bengals were 0 for 9 on 3^rd downs and only mustarded up 198 yards of total offense. I knew they’d struggle to score and that’s why I didn’t pick them. All the Bengals had was AJ Green and he could only do so much.

Next Up: The Patriots smoked Houston at Foxborough, 42-14 (And it wasn’t even that close.) in week 14, in what Houston called, “the biggest game in franchise history”.  Well I’d surmise to say this game is a lot more important. If Marvin Lewis, a guy that's never won a playoff game as a head coach mind you, can out coach Kubiak what do you think Belichick does, having had two weeks to prepare for the Texans.

Green Bay Packers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

“Joe Webb is a real x-factor” words said BY NO ONE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. If I didn’t have faith in a guy with “Christ” in his first name, why the hell would I have any in a guy that didn’t throw a single pass all year long? I couldn’t believe the way Criss Collinsworth was talking up Joe Webb in NBC’s pregame broadcast. C’mon son, like he really had a shot to win. That was the greatest sell job since Daniel Day-Lewis tricked people out of their land in There Will Be Blood. I’d officially like to nominate Collinsworth for this year’s Best Actor Academy Award. Backups are backups because they suck. All you need to know about Joe Webb is this; no matter how bad it got, (And it got REALLY, REALLY BAD AT TIMES) Joe Webb COULDN’T beat out Christian “If I were wearing a Jets #6 you’d think I was Mark Sanchez” Ponder. NOT EVEN FOR A GAME, A HALF, OR A SINGLE DRIVE did Joe Webb challenge Christian Ponder for his starting job. Not much to say about Green Bay other than they had seen enough of Adrian Peterson to figure out a way to finally stop him. (He only ran for 99 yards and his longest rush was for 18 yards.) Even with Ponder, Peterson needed to go “Super Saiyan” for the Vikings to have a chance. The Packers bottled him up all night and forced Joe Webb to beat them. The Packers look just like they did in 2010 when everyone got healthy at year’s end and they won it all. Rodgers picked the Vikings apart all night to the tune of passing to a record ten different receivers in a playoff game. Green Bay looks ready to go and they have the best QB left on the NFC side of the playoffs by miles.

Next Up: The 49ers beat the Packers in Week One but I gave that no thought when I was picking this game. If Russell Wilson and Tom Brady could find holes in that San Francisco defense, you got to think Rodgers would. I’m still not sure if I trust Colin Kaepernick here. The more I think about it, I don’t. In the end, when a game feels like a toss up to me, I go with the QB I trust more. (See Cincy vs. Houston.)

Baltimore Ravens 24 - Indianapolis Colts 9

Ray Lewis playing his last game at home > Playing on the road for your cancer survivor head coach. Last week when I wrote that the Ravens would lose in the first round, I didn’t have the knowledge of Ray Lewis retiring before I made that pick. I still gave the Colts the edge for a few reasons. The Ravens looked like crap down the stretch, Andrew Luck stopped throwing INTs and even though I knew the crowd would be jazzed in the first quarter after Lewis’ pregame antics, I thought Indy would settle in, but I didn’t know it was going to be like this. (Hell, I wanted to hit somebody on Indianapolis after I saw it.) The Colts moved the ball pretty well (419 Total Yards vs. the Ravens 441) but they just couldn’t cash in with TDs. The Ravens showed a real commitment to running the ball by rushing for 172 yards on 32 carries. Anquan Boldin played out of his mind grabbing 5 receptions for 145 yards and one TD. When it’s all said and done, Ray Lewis’ passion and energy infused a level of urgency in the Ravens that I hadn’t seen in them all year long. I’ll save my thoughts on Ray Lewis’ career and legacy after the season, when, or IF he retires. (He better freaking retire. You don’t get to play THAT card more than once.) Ray Lewis, winner, champion, leader…cancer survivor… murderer? (Relax it’s a joke, it’s a joke!)

Next Up: I really wanted to see Luck go up against Peyton Manning but Ray Lewis going to Denver isn’t a bad consolation prize. Their "battles" were always legendary and its only fitting Lewis has to go through Manning to keep himself out of early retirement. The Ravens got man handled by the Broncos 34 to 17 back in week 15, but that was without Lewis and without this newfound motivation they have now. It’s an added dimension I didn’t know I'd have to account for but they aren’t going to be in Baltimore, where they feed off the AFC’s best home crowd. (Like I said, the Colts racked up a lot of yards, moved the ball easily and were on the field for 37 minutes but just they kept scoring FGs. Going out on a limb and saying Manning turns those into TDs.) The Broncos and the old Colts QB will be ready to go and I think the whole Raven’s team retiring wouldn’t help them get a win in Denver.

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Washington Redskins 14

This game will always be a great “what if” to me. I picked the Seahawks to win even before I knew RG3 wasn’t 100%. The Seahawks are the NFL’s most balanced team and I thought they had the athletes to contain RG3. He clearly wasn’t himself and the Redskins didn’t have a shot if he wasn’t the dual threat we’ve seen all year long. He looked even worst than he did last week. It’s clear the Redskins “sold their souls” to win against the Cowboys in the season finale and RG3 didn’t have enough to get it done on Sunday. RG3 is a grown man and if he says he’s good to go then you give him a chance to play. I don’t think Shanahan made a mistake by sticking with him because Griffin III said it himself, even when you’re healthy you’re taking a risk playing football. RG3 went on to say, he was the best option at QB for the Redskins and he was right. (People seem to forget that backup rookie QB Kirk Cousins had that great comeback against a then choking Ravens team and he played his only full game against the Browns.) Russell Wilson gets mad props for staying grounded and leading the Seahawks’ comeback. (24 unanswered points, 340+ Yards of offense after the 1^st quarter.) Even though RG3 was hurt, Seattle made the changes on defense to shut the Redskins out for the rest of the game and held them to 74 TOTAL YARDS after the 1^st quarter. That’s championship level defense right there and Wilson’s got to have all the confidence in the world now. The Seahawks aren’t going to be an easy out for anyone.

Next Up: It looks like the stars are aligning and we’re headed for a Green Bay vs. Seattle rematch at Lambeau Field because I have ZERO faith in the Atlanta Falcons at home. There’s a reason Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal have been "foaming at the mouth" to bet against them in the playoffs. The Falcons just aren’t a proven playoff team and for someone with the nickname “Matty Ice”, Matt Ryan hasn’t played very “icy” in the playoffs. (0-3 with more INTs than TDs and he hasn’t passed for over 200 yards in any of those losses.) The Seahawks have won seven straight now and will go into Atlanta being the first top-tier defense the Falcons have faced since week two against the Broncos. I’ll start believing in Atlanta when they give me a reason to and as of yet, they haven’t.

NFL M.anning V.erus P.eterson

One will win, but who?

On Monday, I profiled the great play of the NFL rookie quarterbacks and while they have been great, these next guys I’ll be talking about are the cream of the crop. In case you happened to miss the title of this particular post, I really think the NFL MVP comes down to two guys. Sometimes things are just the way they are, but you still like to talk about or consider the other options, if only to confirm the right choice. The right choice IS Peterson or Manning. Manning or Peterson, if you prefer.

REAL TALK: “You have about as much of a shot of winning this award as I do, but you actually play and if I didn’t at least talk about you, I’d feel bad about it later.”

CODE: Honorable Mention

JJ Watt (Houston Texans, DE)

Team Record: (12-2)

Key Stats: 19.5 Sacks, 74 Total Tackles, 15 Pass Defended

Back To The Future is killing it at the box-office, The Cosby Show is America’s number one TV show, “That’s What Friends Are For” is the hottest song and I was born. All these things happened in 1986, which also happens to be the last time a defensive player won MVP. (Lawrence Taylor had to have one of the greatest defensive seasons of all time, at the time, to win the award. Offenses weren’t nearly as dynamic then and Taylor’s 20.5 sacks should be surpassed by both Watt and Aldon Smith.) The list of NFL MVPs is a "who's who" list that only reads quarterback and running back but if any guy on the defensive end of the ball had at least a case to be made it’s Watt.

Watt is good, but he won't win MVP.

Watt’s 19.5 sacks, 39 quarterback hits (almost 10 clear of the second guy) and 33 tackles for loss lead the NFL (10 clear of the second guy). He’s easily the most feared defender in the NFL right now and he’s the one guy the quarterback always looks for before the play starts. Each week during the NFL broadcasts of Texans’ games, the announcers are always talking about the crazy ways that teams try to prepare for him. Taking team assistants and having them wave tennis rackets and brooms to simulate Watt’s super human ability to bat passes down at the line of scrimmage.

The most unreal stat I found when researching Watt was this next one. Watt’s 15 passes defended easily leads all NFL defensive linemen, he’s in the top-ten of that stat and he’s the ONLY player among the league leaders that isn’t a cornerback or safety. You literally have to get to the 48^th qualifier to find another position player outside of a cornerback or safety. (It’s London Fletcher at linebacker and he’s only at 9 passes defended.) Think about this, he’s the only guy in the top ten of a stat that’s dominated by players who’s job it is to always have passes thrown at them.

REAL TALK: “Yawn, You’re having another MVP caliber season but I think it’s technically illegal in at least four states to not mention you in any MVP discussion.”

CODE: 3^rd in the Voting

Tom Brady (New England Patriots, QB)

Team Record: (10-4)

Key Stats: 4,276 PY (Passing Yards) 30 TDs 8 INTs

Talking about Tom Brady being a MVP candidate any year at this point is like talking about Jenna Haze being a candidate for “starlet” of the year. Her yearly “credentials” means she’ll always make a good choice. (If the reference has you a little lost Google “Jenna Haze”. But be warned, if you have Google Chrome or Safari use an “incognito” window or privacy browsing…. Hint, hint, wink, wink… ah screw it, she’s a porn star and her “work” is just as dependable and sterling as Brady’s is each year.) Before 2007, Tom Brady was a Hall of Fame QB that was an above average game manager that won Super Bowls on great defensive teams. He was like a much, much, much, MUCH better version of Troy Aikman or Terry Bradshaw. He wasn’t a “stats guy” just a really good QB that played better when it mattered and never made the big mistakes that killed his team. Like the 70's Steelers, the defensive was always the backbone of those Patriots teams and like those Bradshaw, Brady was good enough to not screw it up. Then he morphed into Peyton Manning. Putting up monster stats and becoming the headliner of the league’s most powerful offensive attack.

Brady is in typically MVP-form.

The key stats for QBs always seem to have Brady’s name in the top five and for good reason.  He’s one of only four QBs with 30 plus TDs and one of only two with less than 10 INTs. (I’ll be talking about that guy later.) Brady leads the league’s number one offense with a surgeon’s precision. New England’s 506 total points are almost 100 more than the next team. (Denver has 409 and another guy that I’ll be talking about later is leading them.) They’re also the only team in the league averaging over 30 points per game.

The quarterback has the ball in his hands more than anyone else, so you can say the team’s turnover differential is all on them. When QBs like Mark Sanchez are giving away INTs and fumbles like free candy, you have to realize that a team’s QB is almost in total control of his team’s turnover differential. New England’s plus 22 turnover differential is way clear of the next team in line, they’re the only team at 20 plus and if that’s all quarterback that means that’s all Tom Brady.

REAL TALK: “You’re probably the best player on the planet at you’re position and that alone will always make you a good choice as MVP even if other guys may be playing better.”

CODE: 2^nd in the Voting

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers, QB)

Team Record: (10-4)

Key Stats: 104.7 Passer Rating, 3,588 PY 32 TDs 8 INTs

I see a strange similarity between Aaron Rodgers and Michael Jordan. Wait a minute it’s going to make sense, just stay with me. I’m 26 years old, so I did get to see Michael Jordan play and I remember it. Michael Jordan could do things no other player in the league could do. The way he moved and the amazing feats of "grace in the air" he pulled off would leave you breathless. He put up amazing numbers and was always in the discussion for MVP. Even though he was clearly the best player in the league in 1992-93 and1996-97, he wasn’t the NBA MVP. You could have given him the award both of those years and no one would really complain. But that’s not what MVP is about. It’s about the best player that does the most to help his team win in that given year. (At least that’s what it’s about in my opinion.)

While he's been really good, Rodger's numbers
aren't as superhuman this year.

I saw at least three throws in the Green Bay game versus the Bears last week that I’m 100% sure only Rodgers could have made. The best was an amazing back shoulder throw for an eight-yard TD to James Jones. The DB was riding Jones’ back and the moment Jones turned his head, the ball was right there, in the only spot where Jones could get it and the DB couldn’t. The guy is simply the best thrower of the football on the planet. On the run throws, off balance throws, short throws, back shoulder throws, deep ball throws, breadbasket drop-in throws. The guy can make any throw at anytime. Remember that stat where I said only two guys have 30 plus TDs and less that 10 INTs? This is that other guy. His 104.7 passer rating leads the NFL and his 32 TDs are second.

He gets extra kudos because Rodgers shoulders the load on a team that would otherwise fall apart without him. The receivers are great but Green Bay’s running game has been about as useful as it would be if I were their starting running back. They have no balance, which means you should be able to stop them because you know they’re always going to be passing. That’s led to him being sacked a NFL high 45 times. When he drops back, he pretty much knows he’s going to get hit but he still gets the job done. The other guys right behind Rogers in sacks all have 14 plus INTs. It tells you those guys let the pressure get to them, it forces them into rushing passes and making careless mistakes. That means, Rodgers holds his own, gets up, comes back for more and still makes the right decision.

REAL TALK: “I have no idea how to separate you two, so I say let’s lock you guys in a shipping container with an old rusty pipe and whoever walks out wins the award.”

CODE: Tied for 1^st in the Voting

Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos, QB)

Team Record (11-3)

Key Stats: 4,016 PY 31 TDs 10 INTs 67.9 Completion Percentage

Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings, RB)

Team Record (8-6)

Key Stats: 1,812 Rushing Yard, 6.3 Yards Per Carry, 11 TDs

When I started to do the research for each of the guys right above, this got a lot harder to do. Yes, cases CAN BE made for Rogers and Brady, but Peterson and Manning are the clear favorites for NFL MVP this year. (They just pass the "eye" test and the "this team wouldn't halfway look the same without this guy" test.) This is also the first time those same two guys are also the front-runners for NFL Comeback Player of the Year and it's helped elevate them in the MVP discussion. Their great play is being highlighted by the fact that each one is coming off major surgery in the off-season. Some predicted that neither man would even play at all, much less at THIS level.  For each strong case for Peterson and Manning, something can be said against each case, and cases can be made against those cases against them. (I know I’m confused too, but stay with me.)

For Manning: He’s led his team to nine straight wins, a division title, a first round bye and possibly the number one seed in the AFC playoffs. (It could happen. Houston is a game up in the win column and they hold the tie-breaker should they and Denver finish with the same record via a win over Denver in Week 3, but Houston finishes with the Vikings and Colts. Two teams fighting to just make the playoffs, while Denver is facing off against the Browns and the Chiefs. Two very winnable games.)

Manning has Denver primed for a Super Bowl run.

Against Manning: Tebow made the playoffs with the same team last year, so you know there’s talent on Denver’s roster. Of those nine wins in a row, only two were over teams with winning records. Cincinnati, always a “good” bad team lately but still a bad team. Baltimore, which is proving to be much worst than we all thought and they’re currently falling apart. Denver lost each of their games against “real” competition, Houston, Atlanta and New England.

Case against the “Case Against”(If that makes sense): A win is a win, no matter the opponent.  Manning is elevating the play of good players, making them great players and more PRODUCTIVE ON THE FIELD, something Tebow could never do. (Tebow does motivate players to play HARDER but that doesn’t mean they’re playing better.) The losses against “real” competition were in the beginning of the year, when Manning was finding himself and Denver wasn’t playing at nearly the level they are now.

For Peterson: In a league where we had three guys pass for 5,000 yards plus last year and "workload running backs" are going the way of the do-do bird, he’s leading the league in rushing, he’s about to eclipse 2,000 yards and he has a real chance at breaking the all time mark for rushing yards in a season. He’s almost single handedly keeping Minnesota in the playoff hunt and all this on a team where he’s the ONLY offensive threat.

Against Peterson: His team could very well miss the playoffs and that’s never good if you’re supposed to be the MVP. For all the yards that he’s rushed for, he only has 11 TDs and it doesn’t even lead the league.

In a few weeks, Peterson could be the NFL Single Season Rushing King.

Case against the “Case Against”: Peterson is saddled with one of the league’s worst QBs in Christian Ponder. Unlike the other players I’ve talked about, Peterson’s team didn’t make the playoffs last year and they weren’t expected to this year, so the fact they’re even "in the hunt" is something that can't be overlooked. While the touchdowns aren’t there, Peterson leads the league in yards per carry and runs of 20 yards plus with 20. The next guy in line only has 11. (IMPORTANT NOTE: Peterson is above Dickerson’s record pace in ALL the major categories for a RB at the same point in the season. More yards. 1,812 vs. 1,792. More yards per carry. 6.2 vs. 5.4 and tied with 11 TDs. Peterson’s trailing in one category however. He has 289 carries to Dickerson’s 326. He’s literally done MORE with LESS opportunities… In a passing league. I know, crazy.)

So there you have it, too close to call. Peterson’s lack of team success could ultimately hurt him as the voter fatigue could hurt Manning. (Manning already has four MVPs)

Lastly, I think my thoughts on who should win the comeback player could help decide who wins the MVP. To me, it’s all about what you’re coming back from. (I know Manning did miss all of last year and Peterson didn’t, but Peterson is still coming back from a season-ending injury and did it way quicker than we all thought. So they both are true candidates to receive the award to get that out of the way.) What’s more important to your overall quality of life, your neck or your knee? If you say knee look at it like this, I never saw anyone get killed in the movies by having their knee snapped. That being said, I’d rather have my knee worked on three times a year until the end of time, than have my neck worked on even once in life. One of these guys is coming back from that… four times… and twice in one year.

Thanks for reading and don't forget to subscribe and share the blog. Join in the discussion by leaving a comment below. Follow me on twitter @ParisLay. Until next time... Enjoy the View!