Some Like It Hot! 1st Annual NFL Head Coach Hot-Seat Power Rankings

Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan; You could say they're two guys
on polar opposite sides of the Power Rankings.

Do you feel it? Do you see it? The chill in the air. The browning of the leaves. All annual signs that it’s the start of a new NFL season and with it the chance/hope your favorite team can continue their excellence or return to its former glory.

As much as I love seeing which teams will step forward and which ones will fall back, I get just as much joy in the NFL coaching carousel. Watching NFL coaches squirm and wither away from the ever-mounting pressure of losses, the fans and ownership is as entertaining as the games themselves at times. In honor of all this “morbid” fun, I’m starting a new annual tradition. Let’s take a look at all of the coaches in the NFL and the level of job security each enjoys (Some are "enjoying" job security like a hard kick to the nads.) in my 1st Annual NFL Coaching Hot-Seat Power Rankings.

Dead Man Walking (Norv Turner Award)

(Named After the Coach that survived the most seasons as a Dead Man Walking.)
Coaches here already have their pink slips under their office chairs, even if they don’t know it. These guys could literally be fired by the time I finish typing this. Only an improbable Super Bowl victory saves their jobs. 

Rex Ryan – New York Jets 

Oh Rex! How we’ve all enjoyed the "funny" press conferences, Sanchez tattoos and foot fetish videos but it’s all over. Rex Ryan is the example of a guy that reached a job that far exceeded his qualifications. He’s a defensive coordinator at heart so we shouldn't be so surprised he backed the wrong QB and his team has zero offensive firepower. Rex’s seat is so hot, he may not last a full season in New York.

Blazing Hot 

The Coaches here are probably done after this season. Miss the playoffs and it’s over. Make the playoffs and it still may be over. They at least last through the season, but they’d need 10 plus victories and at least one playoff win to get another year.

Jim Schwartz – Detroit Lions

Schwartz is your classic case of a head coach with a seemingly talented team but he isn't winning. He's got a franchise QB, superstar playmakers on offense and defense, so why can’t he win? Look, dude did takeover a 0-16 team, so some credit has to be given but the team is far too talented now to be going 4-12.

The Lions have been horribly undisciplined at times and that always points to a lack of leadership from the head coach. Detroit MUST make the playoffs for Schwartz to come back in 2014. You can’t keep wasting the prime years of guys like Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford.

The Texas heat isn't the only thing Garrett is feeling.

Jason Garrett – Dallas Cowboys 

I don’t care what Jerry Jones says about Garrett’s job security, this guy is toast if Dallas flops again. Few teams go into each season with as much unwarranted hype as the Cowboys, (Much to they’re own doing most of the time.) so the guy that coaches Dallas will always be under pressure. With Garrett at the helm the Cowboys have gone 5-3, 8-8 and 8-8. Far below the number of wins a team with this type of talent should have.

Bill Callahan was brought in this off season to handle the play calling duties, which still doesn't make any sense to me. I thought that was supposed to be Garrett’s strongest quality as a NFL coach, his unique and aggressive play calling. It’s like having a great pastry chef at your restaurant but when the restaurant starts failing you decide to bring in another pastry chef and move the great one you already had over to the grill to cook steaks. Makes no sense. 

Ron Rivera – Carolina Panthers

Unlike the two coaches above him, Ron Rivera doesn’t quite have the same level of overall talent, but his biggest issue is he seem's to have a franchise QB in Cam Newton but he can’t get the best out of him. There are few things worst/annoying than owning a fast car (Newton) and always driving under the speed limit. (Winning fewer than 8 games.)

In Rivera’s defense, in both of his two seasons as the head coach, the Panthers played much better in the second half. Carolina needs to get off to a much faster start in 2013 and at least be above .500. They win at least 8 games and Newton looks improved, I say Rivera could be safe for another season. Anything less and it’s over.

Mike Munchak – Tennessee Titans

This team really doesn’t look to be going anywhere under Munchak. They don’t look good or average. They’re bad but they don’t look like a complete dumpster fire either. Jake Locker doesn’t seem to be the right guy at QB and Chris Johnson hasn’t been the same since he sat out for his new contract. Playoffs and 10 plus wins saves Munchak’s job. 6-10 and no playoffs again and he’s unemployed.

Hot & Heating Up

Coaches here are in some trouble. Expectations are high so they must win but if they loss too badly they could be out.

Kubiak needs to win big to stay safe beyond 2013.

Gary Kubiak – Houston Texans

I was really close to putting Gary Kubiak in the list of coaches above, but he’s had too much recent success to say he’s in that much trouble. Unlike the Cowboys, Lions and Panthers, the Texans are coming off a season where they had 12 wins, won the division, made the playoffs and won a playoff game. 

Kubiak has the team moving in the right direction the only question is the same question you have with the team’s QB Matt Schaub. Can he get you over the hump? Like Schaub, you can win games with Kubiak, but can he win you Super Bowls?

Mike Smith – Atlanta Falcons

Mike Smith faces the same questions and situation as Kubiak. You could honestly read the above thoughts, replace Kubiak with Smith and Texans with Falcons and it’d be pretty “spot-on” for what Smith is going through in Atlanta. Including the same questions with his QB. The Falcons however, have far more aerial offensive firepower and Matt Ryan is probably a more talented QB than Schaub. Besides that, the Falcons are to the NFC what the Texans are to the AFC.

Toasty 

The coaches here aren’t in any real trouble but all bets are off if they lose 10 plus. Coaches here are relatively safe if they win 7 or more games.

Marvin Lewis – Cincinnati Bengals 

Marvin Lewis has been the coach of the Bengals for over a decade now with "mixed" results. His best team in 2005 looked primed to win big in the playoffs until Carson Palmer got his knee blown out and that was that. Palmer hasn't been the same since and neither were the Bengals. The Bengals really seem to be on the right track since they got Andy Dalton and A.J. Green but Lewis better start winning playoff games soon. There always seems to be some heat on Lewis so he can coach under the pressure, but 10 years, no playoff victories and underachieving with a team that looks to have great balance on both sides of the ball is not a good look. But he’s a Black coach and I gotta support the guy. It’s a Black Law. Like defending OJ and hating George Zimmerman.

Shanahan is pretty safe in Washington thanks to RG3.

Mike Shanahan – Washington Redskins

I really hate this team's nickname, so when addressing them I’ll only type or say “Washington”. Shanahan finally has his best QB since John Elway and he almost immediately screwed it up. Washington wasn’t expected to do anything in 2012, so getting 10 wins, the NFC East crown and making the playoffs should be seen as a huge success. Shanahan put a lot of pressure on himself by his mismanagement of Robert Griffin III's knee injury in the playoffs.              

That pressure has only increased after Shanahan said the team has Super Bowl or bust expectations. If Washington makes the playoffs again in 2013 it should still be seen as a great season. Especially seeing where the team’s coming from the past 15 years, but not making the playoffs isn’t the end of the world either. Shanahan would have to lose at least 13 games, get RG3 injured or killed, drive down to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and slap President Obama to lose his job.

Leslie Frazier – Minnesota Vikings

I’m sure even Frazier himself didn’t see the Vikings having a playoff season in 2012. Namely because his best player Adrian Peterson was coming back from ACL surgery, his QB was “subpar” at best and his defense was aging fasted than milk left out on the counter on a hot day. But Minnesota won anyway.

Peterson had the greatest season ever for a running back, won the MVP, carried the team into the playoffs and probably saved Frazier’s job in the process. The Vikings could and should slip a bit in 2013 and Frazier would still return, but if they lose 10 plus, and look bad doing it, he’s gone. I was "this" close to putting Frazier in "Hot and Heating Up", but remember he's Black.

Neutral 

These coaches are just safe. They could lose 10 plus and still come back, but they definitely see more heat in the next season if they do that. Most of these coaches either just got the job or are in year two of the job. The ones that have a year of service start to move up or down after this season. But for this season, they could win or lose and they still return.

Carroll's all smiles in Seattle.

Pete Carroll – Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks looked primed and ready to do big things in 2013. They have all the talent in the world on both sides of the ball and Carroll really looks to have the team focused on bigger goals than the division title. Russell Wilson just might be the greatest draft day steal in NFL history and could probably run for mayor of Seattle and win in a landslide.

Carroll isn’t in the next group of coaches because he’s missing that sustained or exceptional playoff success. Win or lose he’s safe to return in 2013. Win big and Carroll goes up a level in job safety. Lose big and he goes down a level. Carroll would have to have the Seahawks lose 13 plus and run plays with their helmets on backwards to get fired. 

John Fox – Denver Broncos

John Fox is one of the best coaches in the league that hasn’t won a Super Bowl. He took Tim “I Can’t Complete a Five Yard Out” Tebow and turned him into a playoff winning QB. He went to the Super Bowl with Jake Delhomme! (RE-READ THAT LAST SENTENCE!) So it comes as no surprise to me when he got Peyton Manning last season, he won 13 games including 11 in a row. 

Fox had one of the freakiest stats in NFL history at one point. Teams he coached had a record of 50+ and 0 when his offense scored at least 24 points. That all changed versus Black Jesus Black Tebow Ray Lewis and the Ravens last year. Fox and the Broncos have Super Bowl dreams again, and like Carroll, he could move up or down on this list depending on his team’s success in 2013.

Gus Bradley – Jacksonville Jaguars
Andy Reid – Kansas City Chiefs
Rob Chudzinski – Cleveland Browns
Joe Philbin - Miami Dolphins
Chip Kelly – Philadelphia Eagles
Marc Trestman – Chicago Bears
Jeff Fisher – St. Louis Rams
Greg Schiano - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike McCoy - San Diego Chargers
Bruce Arians – Arizona Cardinals
Chuck Pagano – Indianapolis Colts
Doug Marrone – Buffalo Bills
Dennis Allen – Oakland Raiders

Unmovable

Nothing to say because the coaches here aren’t going anywhere. They’ve got Super Bowl appearances and/or Super Bowl wins. They'd have to lose 10 plus for a few years before they feel an ounce of heat. These guys basically quit/retire to lose their jobs.

The Harbaughs are going nowhere anytime soon.

Jim Harbaugh – San Francisco 49ers
John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens
Mike Tomlin – Pittsburg Steelers
Tom Couglin – New York Giants
Mike McCarthy – Green Bay Packers
Sean Payton – New Orleans Saints

God Mode (Saban Award) 

(Named After The Coach With Greatest Job Security in the history of football.)
This slot is saved for the one guy that could lose every year for a decade and still not move. When this guy retires, the team is going to try to talk him into staying longer. This guy is NEVER EVER feeling heat. He has statues outside of the stadium, fans name they’re babies after him and water towers in his hometown have his name painted across them. He doesn’t lose the job until he quits the job and if he wants to come back, you fire the guy that replaced him on the spot if it means he coaches your team again.

Bill Belichick – New England Patriots

Join the debate by leaving a comment below. Did you like my list or no? Did it get it right or wrong? Feel free to let me know. You can follow me on Twitter @ParisLay. Thanks for reading and as always Enjoy the View!

I May Be Wrong, But I Doubt It! (Episode 16 PT. 2)

Case study for violence and stupidity. Aaron Hernandez.

In the wake of the Aaron Hernandez murder trial, my brother Zeph and I have a discussion about violence in sports and why so much seems to come from the NFL. We talk about the factor money plays in the violence, what can the NFL do to limit these problems, why does the NFL seem to get a "pass" from incidents like this, does this black-eye hurt the league's image and where do the Patriots go from here as far as on the field. This is part two of a two part mega podcast. Click this link to hear part one, where we talk about the biggest topics in the NBA. Subscribe, share and join the debate by leaving a comment below. You can follow me on Twitter @ParisLay and you can follow my brother Zeph @NeecySon81. Thanks for listening and enjoy the view!

I May Be Wrong, But I Doubt It! (Episode 2)

It's a long one, but a very good one, as my brother Zeph breakdown the 1st Round of the 2013 NFL Draft. We'll tell you what each team such do with their picks and where things when wrong for them a season ago. Hearing me butcher the names of the draftees is worth a listen alone. Thanks for listening and enjoy the view!

The Weekend That Was (Divisional Round Recap)

Baltimore Ravens 38 – Denver Broncos 35

Ray Lewis and the Ravens live to fight other day.

Let me start by saying this game was one of the greatest playoff games I’ve ever seen. Defensive TDs, special team TDs, big runs, big passes, ties, lead changes, defensive stances, overtime; I mean this game had it all. All but the outcome we all expected that is. Seems like every year, in this round, someone loses that “shouldn’t” lose and it happened to be the top-seeded Broncos in 2013. Now, I’m not the type that believes in God having anything to do with sports, as far as the outcome of games goes, but someone is answering Black Tebow’s Ray Lewis’ prayers. The Ravens defense played much better than they did last week. They forced one more turnover against Denver than they did against the Colts. Plus, Denver had two overtimes and still didn’t outgain the Colts’ effort last week. (419 yards of total offense vs. 398. Andrew Luck’s 288 yards were only two yards shy of Peyton Manning’s passing yard total. And both teams ran the same number of plays, 87.) The first INT you can live with. (Not really because it was a pick-six.) Tipped ball, I get it, it happens but the last one was nothing more than your classic “cold-weather-playoff -game Manning INT”. I’m starting to think there’s a reason why he's tied with Brett Farve for the most career playoff losses. It’s because he’s just not as good in the playoffs as he is in the regular season. (Now you want to know something really scary? Tim Tebow has a better winning percentage in playoff overtime games and a better win-lost record in Denver home playoff games than Peyton Manning. Ouch.)  Champ Bailey has clearly lost a step, or five, and doesn’t deserve to go to the Pro Bowl this year. He got burned over and over but the biggest story of this game is the clutch play of Joe Flacco. Can we all stop saying he sucks now? I’ve always liked him and I wasn’t as down on him as some people have been this year. (I'll admit it, I was down on the team as a whole.) He throws the best deep ball in the NFL. He’s won at least one playoff game every year of his career. He’s tied with Eli Manning with the most career road playoff wins. He always seems to play well when it really counts and he’s the only QB to make $100 million off of one throw. Great year for the Broncos but they were coached to lose this game every way possible in crutch time. I can get past them not passing on 3rd Down to stop the Ravens from getting the ball back. Even after the horrible coverage that allowed that $100 million completion, I was still thinking the Broncos would win, but not even “trying” at the end of regulation, with two timeouts and Peyton Manning, was all I needed to see to jump ship. No way you want to go into overtime when your defense has proven they can’t get a stop. Without Trindon Holliday making NFL playoff history by returning both a kickoff and a punt for touchdowns, this game isn’t even close. (Even more surprising when you learn that the Ravens have the best special teams unit in the NFL. So it was really a fluke that Denver even made it a game.)

San Francisco 49ers 45 – Green Bay 31

This kept happing a lot.

If you had told me Aaron Rodgers would play bad in this game I would’ve believed you. He was going against one of the two or three best defenses in the league so I guess it’s possible. (This is the team that passed on him for Alex Smith in the ’05 NFL Draft. The one team that he’s been dying to play in a do-or-die game, so you know the motivation for Rodgers should be at an all-time high.) But if you had told me Rodgers would get out played by a guy making his first career playoff start and 8^th career start overall, I would have told you to get your head checked. I knew the Packers defense would give up points and yards but DAMN. 31 points use to be more than enough to beat the 49ers. With Kaepernick pulling the trigger that’s not the case anymore. I said it in my season review, the 49ers offense is so much scarier with Kaepernick under center and we saw why and in full-force this weekend. (The 49ers outscored everyone in the biggest scoring weekend in playoff history.) Michael Crabtree finally looks like the All-Pro receiver the 49ers thought they were getting when they drafted him. Crabtree’s emergence is a complete indictment of just how bad Alex Smith was at QB. With Smith as the QB, tight end Veron Davis was the 49ers’ number one passing option and the tight end is suppose to be a safety net, not a main threat. (Unless your last name is Gronkoski that is.) Good QBs pass the ball to their receivers. Something Smith didn’t do at all in the playoffs last year and don’t even get me started on how amazing Kaepernick looked running the read-option. The Packers didn’t know what to do or what was coming. Was it going to be a Kaepernick run, Gore hand off or a Kaepernick pass? I like Kaepernick in this system because he’s a much better runner than RG3. He’s not a better runner I should say, just a smarter one. Kaepernick doesn’t try to juke guys out or go head first at the defense like RG3 does. He takes what he can and gets down. I also loved the way he bounced back after that first drive pick six. It shows he’s not easily rattled and you can trust him to rebound after a big mistake. Kaepernick is totally making Jim Harbaugh look like a genius for dumping Smith. I still haven’t heard Smith’s thoughts on this whole thing but boy do I want to. (The irony of Alex Smith on the bench for that game is too much for me. The whole QB dynamic in that game in general was crazy. It’s like a guy (49ers) choosing a hot chick (Alex Smith) over an ugly duckling. (Aaron Rodgers) The ugly duckling then uses it as motivation and gets really hot. I’m talking hair coloring, working out, acne treatment, breast implants; the works. The guy (49ers) really knows he’s made a mistake and it’s made worst by the fact that the hot chick (Smith) starts getting fat. So the guy gets a new chick on the side. (Colin Kaepernick) The hot chick (Smith) notices this and starts making changes. She loses the extra weight, dresses better and all that jazz but the guy still dumps her for the new hot chick. So the once ugly duckling (Rodgers) goes to a huge party, where everyone knows she’s going to rub it in the guy’s face. She’s in a great dress and tries to make a grand entrance but falls on her face, while the new hot chick (Kaepernick) steps right over her with the guy (49ers) in tow, as the old hot chick (Smith) is forced to watch at home.)

Atlanta Falcons 30 – Seattle Seahawks 28

Matt Bryant kicks the Falcons one step close to the Super Bowl.

I really thought the Seahawks would win but I forgot won HUGE factor in the game. Seattle was being coached by Pete “I got fired from the NFL before for making these mistakes” Carroll. That being said, the Falcons really tried to be the “Falcons” in this one. They did everything they could to give this game away. Ryan throws the untimely INT, their defense starts choking, the offense starts stalling, Bryant misses the first field goal attempt, they mess up the kickoff, I mean the Falcons did everything but put a bow on this game for the Seahawks. But you know what they say, “a win is a win”. I’m sure Matt Ryan and the Falcons will definitely take it, but they shouldn’t sleep too well on it. (I’ll tell you why in the “Next Up” part of this post.) The one silver lining for Atlanta is the way Ryan played on their final drive. He had been pretty horrible up to that point in the second half and while I thought they had a chance because of their weapons, I didn’t think Ryan would capitalize. He went 2 for 2, kept his team calm and made the plays he had to make to win so there’s that. As for the Seahawks, what a fight in the end! Atlanta had ZERO pass rush and Russell Wilson had all day to throw the ball. He was single-handedly killing the Falcons and almost pulled off one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history. He threw for over 300 yards in the second half alone and clearly out played Ryan down the stretch. The Seahawks have their longterm answer at QB and their future looks really bright but Pete Carroll killed them. Two rules. One, in a playoff game, or any game for that matter, you always take the points. Especially if you’re team is putting up a goose egg so far. You just need to get on the board at that point. You never want to leave points on the field or time outs in your pocket. Two, NEVER EVER DO THE ICE THE KICKER RIGHT BEFORE THE BALL IS SNAPPED AGAIN! I don’t care what the numbers say, don’t do it! It’s a lose-lose. You're giving a guy the chance to practice something he shouldn’t be able to practice. Why do you think some Broncos fans are still mad about the Baltimore kicker going out on the field between the overtimes? If the kicker misses it, like Bryant did, you look silly and like you just cost your team a chance to win the game when you call that timeout. There’s no advantage to letting a guy get to do something twice that he should ONLY HAVE THE CHANCE TO DO ONCE! You also take a metric ton of the pressure off of him by letting him have the free kick. Pete Carroll I blame you for this!

New England Patriots 41 – Houston Texans 28

Tom Brady leads the Patriots to their
7th AFC title game under his watch.

I don’t always go 0-4 when I pick playoff games because if I come close, I always got the Patriots to cover my butt by beating a team in the divisional round. The Patriots offense has been damn near unstoppable at times this season. Tom Brady seems to have so many options it’s like he’s at a freaking buffet, (Four different receivers with five or more receptions.) but the main reason for the Patriots offensive success is they’re balance. They can actually run the ball now and that’s just an added weapon for Brady. The Patriots ran for 122 yards and two TDs on Sunday, which means they can control the clock and run play action. Their defense is still “hit or miss” but they’re much better than they were a season ago. When you’re defense is THAT bad you’re getting nowhere, even with a great QB. (Cut to Packers fans nodding.) The defense isn’t as good as it was when they were winning Super Bowls but it’s good enough to win again. (The loss of Gronk doesn't hurt them this season because they've already played a chunk of their season without him.) The Texans had no real shot and they’re forced to look in the mirror. They even seem to have that “it” about them. The Texans just seem like another “good” team and not a “championship” team. They really missed Brian Cushing and they need someone on the other side to free up J.J. Watt. Matt Schaub couldn't seem to drive the ball down the field at all and he’s honestly looked hurt for a few weeks now. Not sure where Houston go from here but they need to do something to take that next step.

Will the Harbaughs reunite in New Orleans?

Next Up: AFC Championship Preview: The Patriots should have been praying as hard as Ray Lewis for a Broncos victory because the Ravens aren’t scared of them at all. They won big in the playoffs in ’09. (First home playoff lost in Gillette by the way.) They’re a caught pass and made field goal from beating the Patriots in the AFC championship game a year ago. Plus, Baltimore beat New England already this season. Sometimes a team has your number and Baltimore at least seems to have what it takes to beat New England. They’re like the AFC version of the Giants. Flacco outplayed Brady last season and I think he does it again this year, but will it be enough this time. I don't know what it is but something special is happening with this Ravens’ team. Maybe it’s destiny, maybe it’s they’re time or maybe it’s just Black Tebow. I’ve learned my lesson. No more betting against the Ray Lewis’ retirement world tour. If he got away with murder, he can get away with stealing a Super Bowl on his way out. (IT’S A JOKE, IT’S A JOKE. I KID, I KID.)

Next Up: NFC Championship Preview: Remember when I said the Falcons shouldn’t sleep too well about their victory over Seattle? It’s because running/read option QB’s have killed them all season long. Cam Newton beat them once and it should have been twice. (No INTS, four TDs passing, 196 yards rushing and 2 rushing TDs in two games.) RG3 doesn’t get hurt and the Falcons lose that game. The Falcons don’t do the two things they need to do in order to stop Kaepernick. The Falcons don’t generate anything close to a decent pass rush and this last game against Seattle not withstanding they don’t stop the run. I still count that game as a lost because Seattle kicks one FG and they beat the Falcons. I still don’t trust them because they’re still the Falcons and they needed Pete Carroll to bail them out of what would have been the worst collapse in team postseason history. I'm going out on a limb and saying Jim Harbaugh doesn’t make those coaching mistakes. So in the end, the Harbaugh family is going to have a very confused/torn time this year as both Jim and John will lead their teams to the Super Bowl. And don't forget, we were a few plays from that happening last year. 

Thanks for reading and don't forget to subscribe and share the blog. Join in the discussion by leaving a comment below. Follow me on twitter @ParisLay. Until next time... Enjoy the View!

Ode to the Fallen – 1st Annual NFL Year-End Review: AFC PT. 2

If you missed it, click here for NFC PT. 1

AFC EAST

New England (12-4) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

This guy is ready to go.

The Patriots are to the AFC East, what a 16-year old pitcher is to the Little League World Series, what Usain Bolt would be to the Special Olympics. Long story short, it’s just freaking unfair what they’re doing at this point. They’re the defending AFC Champions and they’re one of the few teams that have a real shot at winning the Super Bowl. Tom Brady was in typical MVP form and the Patriots offense scored the 3^rd most points of all time. For the first time in a long time, the Patriots seem to have real balance on offense as they ranked 7^th in rushing this season. While their defense has been improved, to the tune of being ranked 9^th against the run, their secondary still sucks as they ranked 29^th. You can air it out pretty easily on them and teams will be looking to exploit that. I don’t think he’s as good as Aaron Rogers, but they have Tom Brady so they have a shot to beat anyone, anywhere.

Miami Dolphins (7-9) Missed Playoffs

The Dolphins weren’t horrible this year but they didn’t look too good also. They finally “seem” to have the right answer at QB which is half the battle in the NFL. Most years, Ryan Tannehill would have been really impressive, but with RG3, Luck, and Wilson making the playoffs he got overshadowed and rightfully so. Their inability to stop the pass and their inability to make big plays in the passing game was their biggest problem in 2012. In order to move up a level they have to get better, either in free agency or the draft.

New York Jets (6-10) Missed Playoffs

These two people are dragging each other down. 

The Jets really should be applauded this year because they were true pioneers in NFL history. (Stay with me because this is about to be tricky.) They were the first team in NFL history to be the league's worst team and NOT have the worst record. They were the first team to be the worst team while being THE MOST TALKED ABOUT TEAM. It was the first time that a consensus opinion in the national media was proven right. Tebow and Sanchez were a disaster together and no one outside of their locker room or team, thought it had a chance in hell of working. GM Mike Tannenbaum was fired and he had to go. He gave Mark Sanchez an extension and that alone was a “fireable” offense. He’s always drafted horribly, he didn’t make any key pickups in the offseason to improve a their “disgusting” offense and Tim Tebow was clearly a move to grab headlines from the champion New York Giants. (How bad were the Jets on offense? The game against Arizona,  final score of Jets 7, Cardinals 6, has been approved as a new kind of "enhanced interrogation technique", aka torture, to be used by the CIA.) Rex Ryan didn’t get the boot because it wouldn’t be fair to saddle some new coach with a QB like Mark Sanchez. The Jets are stuck with Mark Sanchez for the same reason unhappy husbands are with dirtbag wives, “It’s cheaper to keep her.” The Jets are in for another long season of the same ol’ same ‘ol.

Buffalo Bills (6-10) Missed Playoffs

Ho-hum, just another fired head coach and another losing season in Buffalo. Chan Gailey was never the right answer and the Bills are left wondering where to go from here. Ryan Fitzpatrick clearly isn’t the QB they thought they were getting when they gave him that massive contract extension and they really need to go in another direction. The NFL is a passing league and the Bills can’t pass the ball. They did run the ball just fine however; evident by them finishing 6^th in rushing. Stopping the run was the real problem as they ranked second to last, 31^st, in the league. For all the “upgrades” on the defense they made in the offseason, they really didn’t seem any better on that side of the ball. The Bills are still rebuilding and I don’t see when that “phase” stops for them.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (10-6) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

This team has first round lost written all over it. You want to know the number of wins over playoff teams the Ravens have this season? Two. Week one against the Bengals (You know who else won in week one? The Eagles, the Jets, the Chargers, and the Cowboys just to name a few and none of those teams made the playoffs. Winning in week one is like getting to third base with a slut, anybody can do it.) and week 3 against the Patriots. (And they needed help from the “rent-a-referees” to get that victory.) For a guy in his contract year, Joe Flacco really didn’t play like it at all. Injuries aside, I really think this teams sucks and I say the Colts pull off the upset and sends them on they’re way. You can do it Colts, just take “Lassie” out back and finish it. It’s the humane thing to do.

Cincinnati Bengals (10-6) Wildcard, Playoff Berth

I like the way this team put it together at the end of the season. They “knuckled up” in the second half of the season winning seven out of the last eight. Andy Dalton and A.J. Green give the Bengals one of the league’s best QB and receiver duos in what would otherwise be a middle of the road offensive attack. The Bengals real strength is their amazing defensive line as they finished with the second most sacks in the NFL. I wouldn’t be surprised if they faired well against the Texans o-line this weekend but something about Cincy’s a little off. Dalton’s good, but I don’t think he’s “win you a Super Bowl” good. So I think it's one and done for the Bengals in the playoffs.

Pittsburg Steelers (8-8) Missed Playoffs

This happened too much in 2012.

Didn’t it seem like Pittsburg’s defense was older? The numbers say otherwise as they finished 1^st against the pass, 2^nd against the rush and 1^st overall. The real problem in Pittsburg is the same problem they’ve had the past few seasons; their offensive line sucks. While they only ranked 14^th in terms of sacks allowed, Big Ben seemed to always be shaking off defenders or getting up from the ground every time he dropped back. Those same hits caused him to miss games which caused Pittsburg to start a backup. They lost games which later forced the Steelers to start a Roethlisberger when he was still ailing. They have a better o-line and I say they would've made the playoffs. The Steelers need to improve the running game as well to give the offense balance and take some of  the pressure off of Big Ben. Todd Haley and Roethlisberger not seeing eye-to-eye didn’t help matters either.

Cleveland Browns (5-11) Missed Playoffs

At times this season the Browns looked like a real team but they just couldn’t get over the hump. I’m not saying having a 28-year old rookie QB is a bad thing but it’s not a good thing. Trent Richardson showed flashes and I really like some of the playmakers on the defense. With a new ownership group coming into town, you knew they’d be cleaning house but even coaching and GM changes won’t fix Cleveland’s biggest problem. You know, the whole “God hating them” and all. Cheer up Cleveland you did make this. And this.

AFC South

Houston Texans (12-4) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

The Texans are to the AFC what the Falcons are to the NFC. I could literally copy and paste most of the post about Atlanta and it would hold true of the Texans. They’re a very balanced team, they have the NFL’s sack leader and defensive player of the year in J.J. Watt but I’m not in love with Matt Schaub. I don’t think he’s the type of QB that can when you a championship. (Think Tony Romo but with less talent.) I don’t like how they ended the season at all. Win one game and everybody’s going to Houston for the right to play in the Super Bowl, instead they lose two in a row and drop to the three seed. That lack of urgency has to say something about them.

Indianapolis Colts (11-5) Wildcard, Playoff Berth

Chuckstrong = One Playoff Win

Holy One Year turnaround Batman! From two wins to eleven? Enough can’t be said about the job Andrew Luck did with the Colts this year. I went into great details a few weeks ago, so I’ll keep it short here. The Colts made the tough but right decision over the offseason to let Peyton Manning go and pick up Andrew Luck. It’s strange, because in a win now league, you always got to think long-term when it comes to QBs. “Chuckstrong” doesn’t get them to the Super Bowl but it does get them a win over the Ravens. And besides, there’s no way we don’t get to see Manning vs. Luck this year. The universe wants this to happen… or at least I do.

Tennessee Titans (6-10) Missed Playoffs

A very underwhelming but expected season from the Titans. Jake Locker showed improvement but not nearly enough to get the Titans anywhere close to being in the playoffs. This is the classic case of a team needing help everywhere. (22^nd in passing, 21^st in rushing, 26^th against the pass and 24^th against the run.) There’s nothing special about the Titans or they’re QB. I also think there’s no way the Titans bring Chris Johnson back. He's due way too much money for the production he’s giving them.

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-14) Missed Playoffs.

Blaine Gabbert sucks and was a total waste of a draft pick. They have HUGE holes in every area of football on their team and there’s no RG3 or Luck on the way in this year's draft. (See, two cents.)

AFC West

Denver Broncos (13-3) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

Best move of the offseason right here.

Peyton Manning is my MVP, but you already know that, and John Elway is my executive of the year for getting him to Denver. Manning knew what he was doing by going there because Denver’s so talented they got into the playoffs last season with a guy that’ll be playing QB in the CFL next year. Yeah I know they lost to Houston, Atlanta and New England, the only real teams they faced this year but that was in the beginning of the year when they didn’t look nearly as deadly as they do now. I predicted a few weeks back they’d get the number one seed and after winning 11 straight games no team's hotter going into the playoffs. This is my pick to win it all. And remember this, when a Manning wins the Super Bowl, another one wins it the next year.

San Diego Chargers (7-9) Missed Playoffs

I can’t say anything about the Chargers because I have a family member on their team and it wouldn’t be fair, but I will say this about them firing Norv Turner… IT’S ABOUT DAMN TIME!

Oakland Raiders (4-12) Missed Playoffs

That trade for Carson Palmer looks dumber by the minute. They were banking on the year of a full training camp to help return him to the Pro Bowl caliber QB he was years ago and that ain’t happening.  Like never, ever happening. McFadden can’t stay healthy and they have no balance on offense... at all. Oakland’s a mess and I don’t see an end in sight.

Kansas City Chiefs (2-14) Missed Playoffs

The Chiefs did two things well this season. Run the ball (5^th in rushing) and lose games. (2 wins and the number one pick.) I'm still trying to figure out why they hired Romeo Crennel in the first place and their quarterback situation is about as bad as Arizona’s. It looks like Andy Reid is headed here but I'm not sure why. Maybe it's that number one pick, because while Arizona did suck, they did win five games and one was over the Patriots. The Cardinals seemed a little closer than the Chiefs but that's just me. But you know if you're going to a new team, as a new head coach that is, for the most part that team sucked. Again, the next Andrew Luck or RG3 isn’t in sight, so get ready for more dark days ahead Chiefs fans.

Thanks for reading and don't forget to subscribe and share the blog. Join in the discussion by leaving a comment below. Follow me on twitter @ParisLay. Until next time... Enjoy the View!

NFL M.anning V.erus P.eterson

One will win, but who?

On Monday, I profiled the great play of the NFL rookie quarterbacks and while they have been great, these next guys I’ll be talking about are the cream of the crop. In case you happened to miss the title of this particular post, I really think the NFL MVP comes down to two guys. Sometimes things are just the way they are, but you still like to talk about or consider the other options, if only to confirm the right choice. The right choice IS Peterson or Manning. Manning or Peterson, if you prefer.

REAL TALK: “You have about as much of a shot of winning this award as I do, but you actually play and if I didn’t at least talk about you, I’d feel bad about it later.”

CODE: Honorable Mention

JJ Watt (Houston Texans, DE)

Team Record: (12-2)

Key Stats: 19.5 Sacks, 74 Total Tackles, 15 Pass Defended

Back To The Future is killing it at the box-office, The Cosby Show is America’s number one TV show, “That’s What Friends Are For” is the hottest song and I was born. All these things happened in 1986, which also happens to be the last time a defensive player won MVP. (Lawrence Taylor had to have one of the greatest defensive seasons of all time, at the time, to win the award. Offenses weren’t nearly as dynamic then and Taylor’s 20.5 sacks should be surpassed by both Watt and Aldon Smith.) The list of NFL MVPs is a "who's who" list that only reads quarterback and running back but if any guy on the defensive end of the ball had at least a case to be made it’s Watt.

Watt is good, but he won't win MVP.

Watt’s 19.5 sacks, 39 quarterback hits (almost 10 clear of the second guy) and 33 tackles for loss lead the NFL (10 clear of the second guy). He’s easily the most feared defender in the NFL right now and he’s the one guy the quarterback always looks for before the play starts. Each week during the NFL broadcasts of Texans’ games, the announcers are always talking about the crazy ways that teams try to prepare for him. Taking team assistants and having them wave tennis rackets and brooms to simulate Watt’s super human ability to bat passes down at the line of scrimmage.

The most unreal stat I found when researching Watt was this next one. Watt’s 15 passes defended easily leads all NFL defensive linemen, he’s in the top-ten of that stat and he’s the ONLY player among the league leaders that isn’t a cornerback or safety. You literally have to get to the 48^th qualifier to find another position player outside of a cornerback or safety. (It’s London Fletcher at linebacker and he’s only at 9 passes defended.) Think about this, he’s the only guy in the top ten of a stat that’s dominated by players who’s job it is to always have passes thrown at them.

REAL TALK: “Yawn, You’re having another MVP caliber season but I think it’s technically illegal in at least four states to not mention you in any MVP discussion.”

CODE: 3^rd in the Voting

Tom Brady (New England Patriots, QB)

Team Record: (10-4)

Key Stats: 4,276 PY (Passing Yards) 30 TDs 8 INTs

Talking about Tom Brady being a MVP candidate any year at this point is like talking about Jenna Haze being a candidate for “starlet” of the year. Her yearly “credentials” means she’ll always make a good choice. (If the reference has you a little lost Google “Jenna Haze”. But be warned, if you have Google Chrome or Safari use an “incognito” window or privacy browsing…. Hint, hint, wink, wink… ah screw it, she’s a porn star and her “work” is just as dependable and sterling as Brady’s is each year.) Before 2007, Tom Brady was a Hall of Fame QB that was an above average game manager that won Super Bowls on great defensive teams. He was like a much, much, much, MUCH better version of Troy Aikman or Terry Bradshaw. He wasn’t a “stats guy” just a really good QB that played better when it mattered and never made the big mistakes that killed his team. Like the 70's Steelers, the defensive was always the backbone of those Patriots teams and like those Bradshaw, Brady was good enough to not screw it up. Then he morphed into Peyton Manning. Putting up monster stats and becoming the headliner of the league’s most powerful offensive attack.

Brady is in typically MVP-form.

The key stats for QBs always seem to have Brady’s name in the top five and for good reason.  He’s one of only four QBs with 30 plus TDs and one of only two with less than 10 INTs. (I’ll be talking about that guy later.) Brady leads the league’s number one offense with a surgeon’s precision. New England’s 506 total points are almost 100 more than the next team. (Denver has 409 and another guy that I’ll be talking about later is leading them.) They’re also the only team in the league averaging over 30 points per game.

The quarterback has the ball in his hands more than anyone else, so you can say the team’s turnover differential is all on them. When QBs like Mark Sanchez are giving away INTs and fumbles like free candy, you have to realize that a team’s QB is almost in total control of his team’s turnover differential. New England’s plus 22 turnover differential is way clear of the next team in line, they’re the only team at 20 plus and if that’s all quarterback that means that’s all Tom Brady.

REAL TALK: “You’re probably the best player on the planet at you’re position and that alone will always make you a good choice as MVP even if other guys may be playing better.”

CODE: 2^nd in the Voting

Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers, QB)

Team Record: (10-4)

Key Stats: 104.7 Passer Rating, 3,588 PY 32 TDs 8 INTs

I see a strange similarity between Aaron Rodgers and Michael Jordan. Wait a minute it’s going to make sense, just stay with me. I’m 26 years old, so I did get to see Michael Jordan play and I remember it. Michael Jordan could do things no other player in the league could do. The way he moved and the amazing feats of "grace in the air" he pulled off would leave you breathless. He put up amazing numbers and was always in the discussion for MVP. Even though he was clearly the best player in the league in 1992-93 and1996-97, he wasn’t the NBA MVP. You could have given him the award both of those years and no one would really complain. But that’s not what MVP is about. It’s about the best player that does the most to help his team win in that given year. (At least that’s what it’s about in my opinion.)

While he's been really good, Rodger's numbers
aren't as superhuman this year.

I saw at least three throws in the Green Bay game versus the Bears last week that I’m 100% sure only Rodgers could have made. The best was an amazing back shoulder throw for an eight-yard TD to James Jones. The DB was riding Jones’ back and the moment Jones turned his head, the ball was right there, in the only spot where Jones could get it and the DB couldn’t. The guy is simply the best thrower of the football on the planet. On the run throws, off balance throws, short throws, back shoulder throws, deep ball throws, breadbasket drop-in throws. The guy can make any throw at anytime. Remember that stat where I said only two guys have 30 plus TDs and less that 10 INTs? This is that other guy. His 104.7 passer rating leads the NFL and his 32 TDs are second.

He gets extra kudos because Rodgers shoulders the load on a team that would otherwise fall apart without him. The receivers are great but Green Bay’s running game has been about as useful as it would be if I were their starting running back. They have no balance, which means you should be able to stop them because you know they’re always going to be passing. That’s led to him being sacked a NFL high 45 times. When he drops back, he pretty much knows he’s going to get hit but he still gets the job done. The other guys right behind Rogers in sacks all have 14 plus INTs. It tells you those guys let the pressure get to them, it forces them into rushing passes and making careless mistakes. That means, Rodgers holds his own, gets up, comes back for more and still makes the right decision.

REAL TALK: “I have no idea how to separate you two, so I say let’s lock you guys in a shipping container with an old rusty pipe and whoever walks out wins the award.”

CODE: Tied for 1^st in the Voting

Peyton Manning (Denver Broncos, QB)

Team Record (11-3)

Key Stats: 4,016 PY 31 TDs 10 INTs 67.9 Completion Percentage

Adrian Peterson (Minnesota Vikings, RB)

Team Record (8-6)

Key Stats: 1,812 Rushing Yard, 6.3 Yards Per Carry, 11 TDs

When I started to do the research for each of the guys right above, this got a lot harder to do. Yes, cases CAN BE made for Rogers and Brady, but Peterson and Manning are the clear favorites for NFL MVP this year. (They just pass the "eye" test and the "this team wouldn't halfway look the same without this guy" test.) This is also the first time those same two guys are also the front-runners for NFL Comeback Player of the Year and it's helped elevate them in the MVP discussion. Their great play is being highlighted by the fact that each one is coming off major surgery in the off-season. Some predicted that neither man would even play at all, much less at THIS level.  For each strong case for Peterson and Manning, something can be said against each case, and cases can be made against those cases against them. (I know I’m confused too, but stay with me.)

For Manning: He’s led his team to nine straight wins, a division title, a first round bye and possibly the number one seed in the AFC playoffs. (It could happen. Houston is a game up in the win column and they hold the tie-breaker should they and Denver finish with the same record via a win over Denver in Week 3, but Houston finishes with the Vikings and Colts. Two teams fighting to just make the playoffs, while Denver is facing off against the Browns and the Chiefs. Two very winnable games.)

Manning has Denver primed for a Super Bowl run.

Against Manning: Tebow made the playoffs with the same team last year, so you know there’s talent on Denver’s roster. Of those nine wins in a row, only two were over teams with winning records. Cincinnati, always a “good” bad team lately but still a bad team. Baltimore, which is proving to be much worst than we all thought and they’re currently falling apart. Denver lost each of their games against “real” competition, Houston, Atlanta and New England.

Case against the “Case Against”(If that makes sense): A win is a win, no matter the opponent.  Manning is elevating the play of good players, making them great players and more PRODUCTIVE ON THE FIELD, something Tebow could never do. (Tebow does motivate players to play HARDER but that doesn’t mean they’re playing better.) The losses against “real” competition were in the beginning of the year, when Manning was finding himself and Denver wasn’t playing at nearly the level they are now.

For Peterson: In a league where we had three guys pass for 5,000 yards plus last year and "workload running backs" are going the way of the do-do bird, he’s leading the league in rushing, he’s about to eclipse 2,000 yards and he has a real chance at breaking the all time mark for rushing yards in a season. He’s almost single handedly keeping Minnesota in the playoff hunt and all this on a team where he’s the ONLY offensive threat.

Against Peterson: His team could very well miss the playoffs and that’s never good if you’re supposed to be the MVP. For all the yards that he’s rushed for, he only has 11 TDs and it doesn’t even lead the league.

In a few weeks, Peterson could be the NFL Single Season Rushing King.

Case against the “Case Against”: Peterson is saddled with one of the league’s worst QBs in Christian Ponder. Unlike the other players I’ve talked about, Peterson’s team didn’t make the playoffs last year and they weren’t expected to this year, so the fact they’re even "in the hunt" is something that can't be overlooked. While the touchdowns aren’t there, Peterson leads the league in yards per carry and runs of 20 yards plus with 20. The next guy in line only has 11. (IMPORTANT NOTE: Peterson is above Dickerson’s record pace in ALL the major categories for a RB at the same point in the season. More yards. 1,812 vs. 1,792. More yards per carry. 6.2 vs. 5.4 and tied with 11 TDs. Peterson’s trailing in one category however. He has 289 carries to Dickerson’s 326. He’s literally done MORE with LESS opportunities… In a passing league. I know, crazy.)

So there you have it, too close to call. Peterson’s lack of team success could ultimately hurt him as the voter fatigue could hurt Manning. (Manning already has four MVPs)

Lastly, I think my thoughts on who should win the comeback player could help decide who wins the MVP. To me, it’s all about what you’re coming back from. (I know Manning did miss all of last year and Peterson didn’t, but Peterson is still coming back from a season-ending injury and did it way quicker than we all thought. So they both are true candidates to receive the award to get that out of the way.) What’s more important to your overall quality of life, your neck or your knee? If you say knee look at it like this, I never saw anyone get killed in the movies by having their knee snapped. That being said, I’d rather have my knee worked on three times a year until the end of time, than have my neck worked on even once in life. One of these guys is coming back from that… four times… and twice in one year.

Thanks for reading and don't forget to subscribe and share the blog. Join in the discussion by leaving a comment below. Follow me on twitter @ParisLay. Until next time... Enjoy the View!