Some Like It Hot! 1st Annual NFL Head Coach Hot-Seat Power Rankings

Bill Belichick and Rex Ryan; You could say they're two guys
on polar opposite sides of the Power Rankings.

Do you feel it? Do you see it? The chill in the air. The browning of the leaves. All annual signs that it’s the start of a new NFL season and with it the chance/hope your favorite team can continue their excellence or return to its former glory.

As much as I love seeing which teams will step forward and which ones will fall back, I get just as much joy in the NFL coaching carousel. Watching NFL coaches squirm and wither away from the ever-mounting pressure of losses, the fans and ownership is as entertaining as the games themselves at times. In honor of all this “morbid” fun, I’m starting a new annual tradition. Let’s take a look at all of the coaches in the NFL and the level of job security each enjoys (Some are "enjoying" job security like a hard kick to the nads.) in my 1st Annual NFL Coaching Hot-Seat Power Rankings.

Dead Man Walking (Norv Turner Award)

(Named After the Coach that survived the most seasons as a Dead Man Walking.)
Coaches here already have their pink slips under their office chairs, even if they don’t know it. These guys could literally be fired by the time I finish typing this. Only an improbable Super Bowl victory saves their jobs. 

Rex Ryan – New York Jets 

Oh Rex! How we’ve all enjoyed the "funny" press conferences, Sanchez tattoos and foot fetish videos but it’s all over. Rex Ryan is the example of a guy that reached a job that far exceeded his qualifications. He’s a defensive coordinator at heart so we shouldn't be so surprised he backed the wrong QB and his team has zero offensive firepower. Rex’s seat is so hot, he may not last a full season in New York.

Blazing Hot 

The Coaches here are probably done after this season. Miss the playoffs and it’s over. Make the playoffs and it still may be over. They at least last through the season, but they’d need 10 plus victories and at least one playoff win to get another year.

Jim Schwartz – Detroit Lions

Schwartz is your classic case of a head coach with a seemingly talented team but he isn't winning. He's got a franchise QB, superstar playmakers on offense and defense, so why can’t he win? Look, dude did takeover a 0-16 team, so some credit has to be given but the team is far too talented now to be going 4-12.

The Lions have been horribly undisciplined at times and that always points to a lack of leadership from the head coach. Detroit MUST make the playoffs for Schwartz to come back in 2014. You can’t keep wasting the prime years of guys like Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford.

The Texas heat isn't the only thing Garrett is feeling.

Jason Garrett – Dallas Cowboys 

I don’t care what Jerry Jones says about Garrett’s job security, this guy is toast if Dallas flops again. Few teams go into each season with as much unwarranted hype as the Cowboys, (Much to they’re own doing most of the time.) so the guy that coaches Dallas will always be under pressure. With Garrett at the helm the Cowboys have gone 5-3, 8-8 and 8-8. Far below the number of wins a team with this type of talent should have.

Bill Callahan was brought in this off season to handle the play calling duties, which still doesn't make any sense to me. I thought that was supposed to be Garrett’s strongest quality as a NFL coach, his unique and aggressive play calling. It’s like having a great pastry chef at your restaurant but when the restaurant starts failing you decide to bring in another pastry chef and move the great one you already had over to the grill to cook steaks. Makes no sense. 

Ron Rivera – Carolina Panthers

Unlike the two coaches above him, Ron Rivera doesn’t quite have the same level of overall talent, but his biggest issue is he seem's to have a franchise QB in Cam Newton but he can’t get the best out of him. There are few things worst/annoying than owning a fast car (Newton) and always driving under the speed limit. (Winning fewer than 8 games.)

In Rivera’s defense, in both of his two seasons as the head coach, the Panthers played much better in the second half. Carolina needs to get off to a much faster start in 2013 and at least be above .500. They win at least 8 games and Newton looks improved, I say Rivera could be safe for another season. Anything less and it’s over.

Mike Munchak – Tennessee Titans

This team really doesn’t look to be going anywhere under Munchak. They don’t look good or average. They’re bad but they don’t look like a complete dumpster fire either. Jake Locker doesn’t seem to be the right guy at QB and Chris Johnson hasn’t been the same since he sat out for his new contract. Playoffs and 10 plus wins saves Munchak’s job. 6-10 and no playoffs again and he’s unemployed.

Hot & Heating Up

Coaches here are in some trouble. Expectations are high so they must win but if they loss too badly they could be out.

Kubiak needs to win big to stay safe beyond 2013.

Gary Kubiak – Houston Texans

I was really close to putting Gary Kubiak in the list of coaches above, but he’s had too much recent success to say he’s in that much trouble. Unlike the Cowboys, Lions and Panthers, the Texans are coming off a season where they had 12 wins, won the division, made the playoffs and won a playoff game. 

Kubiak has the team moving in the right direction the only question is the same question you have with the team’s QB Matt Schaub. Can he get you over the hump? Like Schaub, you can win games with Kubiak, but can he win you Super Bowls?

Mike Smith – Atlanta Falcons

Mike Smith faces the same questions and situation as Kubiak. You could honestly read the above thoughts, replace Kubiak with Smith and Texans with Falcons and it’d be pretty “spot-on” for what Smith is going through in Atlanta. Including the same questions with his QB. The Falcons however, have far more aerial offensive firepower and Matt Ryan is probably a more talented QB than Schaub. Besides that, the Falcons are to the NFC what the Texans are to the AFC.

Toasty 

The coaches here aren’t in any real trouble but all bets are off if they lose 10 plus. Coaches here are relatively safe if they win 7 or more games.

Marvin Lewis – Cincinnati Bengals 

Marvin Lewis has been the coach of the Bengals for over a decade now with "mixed" results. His best team in 2005 looked primed to win big in the playoffs until Carson Palmer got his knee blown out and that was that. Palmer hasn't been the same since and neither were the Bengals. The Bengals really seem to be on the right track since they got Andy Dalton and A.J. Green but Lewis better start winning playoff games soon. There always seems to be some heat on Lewis so he can coach under the pressure, but 10 years, no playoff victories and underachieving with a team that looks to have great balance on both sides of the ball is not a good look. But he’s a Black coach and I gotta support the guy. It’s a Black Law. Like defending OJ and hating George Zimmerman.

Shanahan is pretty safe in Washington thanks to RG3.

Mike Shanahan – Washington Redskins

I really hate this team's nickname, so when addressing them I’ll only type or say “Washington”. Shanahan finally has his best QB since John Elway and he almost immediately screwed it up. Washington wasn’t expected to do anything in 2012, so getting 10 wins, the NFC East crown and making the playoffs should be seen as a huge success. Shanahan put a lot of pressure on himself by his mismanagement of Robert Griffin III's knee injury in the playoffs.              

That pressure has only increased after Shanahan said the team has Super Bowl or bust expectations. If Washington makes the playoffs again in 2013 it should still be seen as a great season. Especially seeing where the team’s coming from the past 15 years, but not making the playoffs isn’t the end of the world either. Shanahan would have to lose at least 13 games, get RG3 injured or killed, drive down to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and slap President Obama to lose his job.

Leslie Frazier – Minnesota Vikings

I’m sure even Frazier himself didn’t see the Vikings having a playoff season in 2012. Namely because his best player Adrian Peterson was coming back from ACL surgery, his QB was “subpar” at best and his defense was aging fasted than milk left out on the counter on a hot day. But Minnesota won anyway.

Peterson had the greatest season ever for a running back, won the MVP, carried the team into the playoffs and probably saved Frazier’s job in the process. The Vikings could and should slip a bit in 2013 and Frazier would still return, but if they lose 10 plus, and look bad doing it, he’s gone. I was "this" close to putting Frazier in "Hot and Heating Up", but remember he's Black.

Neutral 

These coaches are just safe. They could lose 10 plus and still come back, but they definitely see more heat in the next season if they do that. Most of these coaches either just got the job or are in year two of the job. The ones that have a year of service start to move up or down after this season. But for this season, they could win or lose and they still return.

Carroll's all smiles in Seattle.

Pete Carroll – Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks looked primed and ready to do big things in 2013. They have all the talent in the world on both sides of the ball and Carroll really looks to have the team focused on bigger goals than the division title. Russell Wilson just might be the greatest draft day steal in NFL history and could probably run for mayor of Seattle and win in a landslide.

Carroll isn’t in the next group of coaches because he’s missing that sustained or exceptional playoff success. Win or lose he’s safe to return in 2013. Win big and Carroll goes up a level in job safety. Lose big and he goes down a level. Carroll would have to have the Seahawks lose 13 plus and run plays with their helmets on backwards to get fired. 

John Fox – Denver Broncos

John Fox is one of the best coaches in the league that hasn’t won a Super Bowl. He took Tim “I Can’t Complete a Five Yard Out” Tebow and turned him into a playoff winning QB. He went to the Super Bowl with Jake Delhomme! (RE-READ THAT LAST SENTENCE!) So it comes as no surprise to me when he got Peyton Manning last season, he won 13 games including 11 in a row. 

Fox had one of the freakiest stats in NFL history at one point. Teams he coached had a record of 50+ and 0 when his offense scored at least 24 points. That all changed versus Black Jesus Black Tebow Ray Lewis and the Ravens last year. Fox and the Broncos have Super Bowl dreams again, and like Carroll, he could move up or down on this list depending on his team’s success in 2013.

Gus Bradley – Jacksonville Jaguars
Andy Reid – Kansas City Chiefs
Rob Chudzinski – Cleveland Browns
Joe Philbin - Miami Dolphins
Chip Kelly – Philadelphia Eagles
Marc Trestman – Chicago Bears
Jeff Fisher – St. Louis Rams
Greg Schiano - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike McCoy - San Diego Chargers
Bruce Arians – Arizona Cardinals
Chuck Pagano – Indianapolis Colts
Doug Marrone – Buffalo Bills
Dennis Allen – Oakland Raiders

Unmovable

Nothing to say because the coaches here aren’t going anywhere. They’ve got Super Bowl appearances and/or Super Bowl wins. They'd have to lose 10 plus for a few years before they feel an ounce of heat. These guys basically quit/retire to lose their jobs.

The Harbaughs are going nowhere anytime soon.

Jim Harbaugh – San Francisco 49ers
John Harbaugh – Baltimore Ravens
Mike Tomlin – Pittsburg Steelers
Tom Couglin – New York Giants
Mike McCarthy – Green Bay Packers
Sean Payton – New Orleans Saints

God Mode (Saban Award) 

(Named After The Coach With Greatest Job Security in the history of football.)
This slot is saved for the one guy that could lose every year for a decade and still not move. When this guy retires, the team is going to try to talk him into staying longer. This guy is NEVER EVER feeling heat. He has statues outside of the stadium, fans name they’re babies after him and water towers in his hometown have his name painted across them. He doesn’t lose the job until he quits the job and if he wants to come back, you fire the guy that replaced him on the spot if it means he coaches your team again.

Bill Belichick – New England Patriots

Join the debate by leaving a comment below. Did you like my list or no? Did it get it right or wrong? Feel free to let me know. You can follow me on Twitter @ParisLay. Thanks for reading and as always Enjoy the View!

The Weekend That Was (Wildcard Weekend Recap)

Houston Texans 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

I picked Houston to win this game but I wasn’t totally confident in them because I didn’t trust Matt Schaub. But I didn’t trust Andy Dalton more. It was kind of like asking me to choose between a punch to the face or a kick to the “boys”. Either way, this is going to hurt and I’m not going to be happy with my decision. Schaub sucked but Dalton sucked that much more on Saturday. Nice season for Cincy but they just didn’t have what it takes to win a playoff game on the road, even if Gary Kubiak was coaching the opponent. Marvin Lewis had a great defensive gameplan to stop Schaub and Andre Johnson, but Arian Foster and his 32 carries and 140 yards killed the Bengals. Andy Dalton never looked comfortable and he played that way. He completed 14 of 30 passes and only averaged 4.2 yards per completion. You don’t need to do math to tell thats less than 50 percent right? The Bengals were 0 for 9 on 3^rd downs and only mustarded up 198 yards of total offense. I knew they’d struggle to score and that’s why I didn’t pick them. All the Bengals had was AJ Green and he could only do so much.

Next Up: The Patriots smoked Houston at Foxborough, 42-14 (And it wasn’t even that close.) in week 14, in what Houston called, “the biggest game in franchise history”.  Well I’d surmise to say this game is a lot more important. If Marvin Lewis, a guy that's never won a playoff game as a head coach mind you, can out coach Kubiak what do you think Belichick does, having had two weeks to prepare for the Texans.

Green Bay Packers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

“Joe Webb is a real x-factor” words said BY NO ONE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. If I didn’t have faith in a guy with “Christ” in his first name, why the hell would I have any in a guy that didn’t throw a single pass all year long? I couldn’t believe the way Criss Collinsworth was talking up Joe Webb in NBC’s pregame broadcast. C’mon son, like he really had a shot to win. That was the greatest sell job since Daniel Day-Lewis tricked people out of their land in There Will Be Blood. I’d officially like to nominate Collinsworth for this year’s Best Actor Academy Award. Backups are backups because they suck. All you need to know about Joe Webb is this; no matter how bad it got, (And it got REALLY, REALLY BAD AT TIMES) Joe Webb COULDN’T beat out Christian “If I were wearing a Jets #6 you’d think I was Mark Sanchez” Ponder. NOT EVEN FOR A GAME, A HALF, OR A SINGLE DRIVE did Joe Webb challenge Christian Ponder for his starting job. Not much to say about Green Bay other than they had seen enough of Adrian Peterson to figure out a way to finally stop him. (He only ran for 99 yards and his longest rush was for 18 yards.) Even with Ponder, Peterson needed to go “Super Saiyan” for the Vikings to have a chance. The Packers bottled him up all night and forced Joe Webb to beat them. The Packers look just like they did in 2010 when everyone got healthy at year’s end and they won it all. Rodgers picked the Vikings apart all night to the tune of passing to a record ten different receivers in a playoff game. Green Bay looks ready to go and they have the best QB left on the NFC side of the playoffs by miles.

Next Up: The 49ers beat the Packers in Week One but I gave that no thought when I was picking this game. If Russell Wilson and Tom Brady could find holes in that San Francisco defense, you got to think Rodgers would. I’m still not sure if I trust Colin Kaepernick here. The more I think about it, I don’t. In the end, when a game feels like a toss up to me, I go with the QB I trust more. (See Cincy vs. Houston.)

Baltimore Ravens 24 - Indianapolis Colts 9

Ray Lewis playing his last game at home > Playing on the road for your cancer survivor head coach. Last week when I wrote that the Ravens would lose in the first round, I didn’t have the knowledge of Ray Lewis retiring before I made that pick. I still gave the Colts the edge for a few reasons. The Ravens looked like crap down the stretch, Andrew Luck stopped throwing INTs and even though I knew the crowd would be jazzed in the first quarter after Lewis’ pregame antics, I thought Indy would settle in, but I didn’t know it was going to be like this. (Hell, I wanted to hit somebody on Indianapolis after I saw it.) The Colts moved the ball pretty well (419 Total Yards vs. the Ravens 441) but they just couldn’t cash in with TDs. The Ravens showed a real commitment to running the ball by rushing for 172 yards on 32 carries. Anquan Boldin played out of his mind grabbing 5 receptions for 145 yards and one TD. When it’s all said and done, Ray Lewis’ passion and energy infused a level of urgency in the Ravens that I hadn’t seen in them all year long. I’ll save my thoughts on Ray Lewis’ career and legacy after the season, when, or IF he retires. (He better freaking retire. You don’t get to play THAT card more than once.) Ray Lewis, winner, champion, leader…cancer survivor… murderer? (Relax it’s a joke, it’s a joke!)

Next Up: I really wanted to see Luck go up against Peyton Manning but Ray Lewis going to Denver isn’t a bad consolation prize. Their "battles" were always legendary and its only fitting Lewis has to go through Manning to keep himself out of early retirement. The Ravens got man handled by the Broncos 34 to 17 back in week 15, but that was without Lewis and without this newfound motivation they have now. It’s an added dimension I didn’t know I'd have to account for but they aren’t going to be in Baltimore, where they feed off the AFC’s best home crowd. (Like I said, the Colts racked up a lot of yards, moved the ball easily and were on the field for 37 minutes but just they kept scoring FGs. Going out on a limb and saying Manning turns those into TDs.) The Broncos and the old Colts QB will be ready to go and I think the whole Raven’s team retiring wouldn’t help them get a win in Denver.

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Washington Redskins 14

This game will always be a great “what if” to me. I picked the Seahawks to win even before I knew RG3 wasn’t 100%. The Seahawks are the NFL’s most balanced team and I thought they had the athletes to contain RG3. He clearly wasn’t himself and the Redskins didn’t have a shot if he wasn’t the dual threat we’ve seen all year long. He looked even worst than he did last week. It’s clear the Redskins “sold their souls” to win against the Cowboys in the season finale and RG3 didn’t have enough to get it done on Sunday. RG3 is a grown man and if he says he’s good to go then you give him a chance to play. I don’t think Shanahan made a mistake by sticking with him because Griffin III said it himself, even when you’re healthy you’re taking a risk playing football. RG3 went on to say, he was the best option at QB for the Redskins and he was right. (People seem to forget that backup rookie QB Kirk Cousins had that great comeback against a then choking Ravens team and he played his only full game against the Browns.) Russell Wilson gets mad props for staying grounded and leading the Seahawks’ comeback. (24 unanswered points, 340+ Yards of offense after the 1^st quarter.) Even though RG3 was hurt, Seattle made the changes on defense to shut the Redskins out for the rest of the game and held them to 74 TOTAL YARDS after the 1^st quarter. That’s championship level defense right there and Wilson’s got to have all the confidence in the world now. The Seahawks aren’t going to be an easy out for anyone.

Next Up: It looks like the stars are aligning and we’re headed for a Green Bay vs. Seattle rematch at Lambeau Field because I have ZERO faith in the Atlanta Falcons at home. There’s a reason Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal have been "foaming at the mouth" to bet against them in the playoffs. The Falcons just aren’t a proven playoff team and for someone with the nickname “Matty Ice”, Matt Ryan hasn’t played very “icy” in the playoffs. (0-3 with more INTs than TDs and he hasn’t passed for over 200 yards in any of those losses.) The Seahawks have won seven straight now and will go into Atlanta being the first top-tier defense the Falcons have faced since week two against the Broncos. I’ll start believing in Atlanta when they give me a reason to and as of yet, they haven’t.

Party Like it's 1983

Brandon Weeden

Andrew Luck

Robert Griffin III (RG3)

Ryan Tannenhill

Russell Wilson

The 2012 NFL season has been pretty great so far. As a Lions fan, it hasn’t been that great for me personally, but as a fan of the game, it’s been a really, really good season. There were so many juicy subplots to start the season. Manning getting let go by the Colts. Manning going to the Broncos. The Giants trying to repeat as champions. Luck or RG3. Tebow going to the Jets. Peterson coming back from an ACL tear. The Redskins moving up and going all-in to get RG3.  Five rookie quarterbacks starting on week one. The new coaches in new places. The old coaches on short leashes and so many more. After 15 weeks, some storylines have panned out and some not so much. Manning has been his old self, if not better than his last few years. Peterson HAS been better than his old self. Tebow has been a total non factor but the best subplot of the season has been by far the great play of the rookie quarterbacks. Hell, even a backup rookie QB joined in the fun this week. (Kirk Cousins in the place of RG3: 26 of 37, 329 Yards, 2 TDs one pick, a QBR of 104.4, but most importantly one win to put the Redskins in a 3-way tie atop the NFC East.)

This crop of rookie QBs has been all-world, all time good. I mean, I even voted for 3 rookies to make the Pro Bowl this year. (RG3, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson) The rookie’s teams have a combined 37 victories, which is a record this late into the season, all have at least 5 wins and each one has shown flashes of brilliance. If your team is the Colts, Seahawks or Redskins you’re over the moon. If you’re a Miami or Cleveland fan, you gotta feel like this season has gone much better than you thought and your guy looks like he really may be the guy for the future. And if you’re not happy, look at it like this, you could be the Chiefs or worst…gulp… you could be the Cardinals. It’s Week 15 and 3 rookies, which all started on week one, have their teams on the verge of making the playoffs how can I NOT talk about that.

Andrew Luck

Team Record (9-5)

Key Stats: 74.5 PR (Passer Rating), 3,978 PY (Passing Yards), 20 TDS, 18 INTs

The success of the Colt’s 2012 season can be due to some many different factors. Peyton Manning (If he doesn’t miss the whole season and I MEAN THE WHOLE SEASON, no way the Colts lose enough games to get the number one overall pick), the 2011 Colts, (for sucking so bad they got the number one overall pick) Peyton Manning’s neck, Peyton Manning’s first botched neck surgery (forced him to miss the whole season), Chuck Pagano’s cancer. (THAT’S A JOKE, THAT’S A JOKE, lighten up! All I’m saying is if he’s healthy, no way the players rally the way they have. Your  head coach having cancer is a surefire way to motivate them. Norv Turner is somewhere wishing he’d doctored the results of his yearly physical right now.) But I’m giving the lion’s share to the QB. It’s a quarterback league. They get all the blame for things go sideways, but they also gotta get the big piece of chicken when things go right.

Luck after one of the Colt's six comeback wins this year.

I know Luck has been a turnover machine this year, (18 INTs and 10 Fumbles, he leads the league in turnovers) but he’s asked to throw it a lot more than the other two guys I’m going to talk about. (Wilson has 353 PA, RG3 has 351 PA compared to Luck’s 564 PA) Although Wilson and RG3 have had the training wheels pulled off for a few weeks now, Luck got put on a ten-speed and pushed down a steep hill, with no helmet or kneepads and told “Good Luck” (no pun intended) from week one. He’s been asked to lead and be the best player on his team since he got to Indy. And let’s face it, he’s leading a team that won two games last year into the playoffs and you can’t say enough about that. He’s already won more games that any other number one pick has in their rookie year and he is among the league leaders in comeback victories with six. That tells you two very important things about him. One, he can turn the ball over a million times and come back from it and two, he isn’t afraid of the big moment. If the games within striking distance, Luck’s teammates trust him with the ball and his ability to make a big play when it counts and his opponents know he’s very capable of pulling the horseshoe on his helmet outta his butt and beating them over the head with it. (As I Lions fan, I know this all too well.)

One “red flag” if you can call it that, is his turnovers. Of the 36 qualifying QBs, he ranks 31. His name is flanked by the likes of such “legends” as Matt Cassel, John Skelton, Mark Sanchez, and Brandon Weeden. Ouch. But again, he’s a rookie. That’s what they do. They make mistakes and turn the ball over. Let’s not forget that the guy he replaced in Indy threw 28 in his rookie year and we all know he turned out to be just fine. Rookies nowadays are just victims of their own success. The timetable on when you can reasonably expect winning results with a rookie quarterback is now in year one, given their recent winning ways and the rule changes that make passing the ball about as hard as playing catch in your backyard. If I were given the choice between Luck and RG3, I would always take Luck. He’s bigger, has a better NFL QB pedigree (Mannings have proven it matters), he’s more athletic then he gets credit for (He’s athleticism will always be judged against RG3 which is totally not fair, because its like comparing a Dodge Charger to a Ferrari 458. Both are fast cars but one’s just a tiny bit faster) and he’s the classic, egghead, film room junkie, drop-back, pocket-passer. He’s just a safer bet to stay healthy and his style will ALWAYS work. If you’re smart and you can throw it you’ll do fine in the NFL. Two things Luck has in spades.

Robert Griffin III

Team Record (8-6)* (Kirk Cousins started and won one game…so far because RG3 still hasn’t been clear to play next Sunday)

Key Stats: 104.2 PR, 2,902 PY, 18 TDS, 4 INT, 748 RY (Rushing Yards) 6 RTD

Story time, say I’m at this sushi place and I’m not sure what to get. My friend is like get the California Roll. Not a bad choice, because it’s a safe bet at any sushi place. Not too exotic, it’s hard to screw up and you can’t go wrong with what’s tried and true. I look at the menu and there’s a picture of this spicy tuna tempura roll. It looks really good but I’m not too sure about getting it. My friend is like don’t do it. The waitress says it’s good, the picture looks good, so I say screw it and get the tuna roll.  The food gets to the table, I try the tuna roll and it’s amazing. My friend sees me grubbing out and asks to try one. He takes a bite and his eyes light up like he’s just bitten into the best thing he’s ever eaten, but he quickly hides it. He goes back to eating his California Roll and he’s like “Yeah it was pretty good I admit, but this California Roll is pretty damn good too.” That’s what the St. Louis Ram fans are like right now. They got a regular old California Roll when they could have had a spicy tuna tempura roll. Their jealous, they feel stupid and just like my friend is wishing I’m left with crippling diarrhea later, the Rams fans are hoping RG3 is only this good for right now and that he’ll fall on his face later. Thus proving that they were right to give up the number two pick and sticking with Bradford was the right choice, just like my friend hoped the California Roll was the right choice. (Both are the wrong choices by the way.)

RG3 has been the most exciting player to watch in the NFL by a country mile. I’ve watched more Redskins than any other team outside of my Lions and that’s only because of him. When the guy’s on the field, you can’t turn the channel. You know something amazing could happen every time the ball is in his hands. Be it with his arms or his legs, he’s a threat to score anywhere on the field. (RG3 and Cam Newton are the only guys like that because of their legs and arms. I would say Aaron Rogers, but he’s not that much of a threat with his legs from anywhere on the field compared to the two guys I just mentioned. He can get you a first down anytime scrambling however.  I say anywhere on the field with his arm and from the opponent’s 20 yard-line in, Rodgers is just as deadly with his wheels. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the only other “score anywhere on the field” arm guys.) RG3’s passer rating of 104.2 is tied for the league lead with TOM BRADY. A rookie, through Week 15 is tied with TOM BRADY IN PASSER RATING. That’s crazy to me.  (RG3 is leading now because of the annual stink bomb game Brady put up against the 49ers)

I give most of the credit for his success to the coaching staff in Washington however. I saw his first game and it was easy throw after easy throw. They really haven’t put the kid in too many situations to fail this year. The offense in Washington is really a hybrid NFL/college offense. The read option they run is devastating. The New York Giants defensive lineman couldn’t tell where to go, who had the ball or what type of play was going to happen next. (They played him twice, which should have been an advantage but looked even more lost the second time around.) Was RG3 going to keep it and run, keep it and throw it, or give it to the running back? I couldn’t tell from watching on TV, so just imagine what it was like watching it field level at full game speed. RG3 is the only player that could run it with that level of precision. He’s getting better at reading defenses although he’s not having to make 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th, receiver reads like Rodgers, Manning or Brady but he’s getting there. He doesn’t make the big mistake or that bone headed throw that just kills your team and you gotta love that the most about the guy.

RG3 better learn to slide better than this if he wants to last.

Here comes the “but” with RG3. For all the excitement he gives you, you’re left watching him on pins and needles. He runs a lot. And he runs a lot of designed QB run plays. When Michael Vick rush for 1,039 Yards (the first and only QB to rush for over 1,000 yards so far) in 2006, he did it off 123 rushing attempts and a lot of those were broken plays and scrambles. We have two games left, he missed this week’s game and RG3 has carried the ball 112 times. That’s not good at all. Two things are going to happen over time and they’re the two reasons I’d take Luck over Griffin everyday. One, and this one will happen regardless if he ever rushes the ball again or not, he’s going to get slower. RG3’s legs are one of, if not the biggest, attraction about him. For someone so dependent on his athletic ability, he really shouldn’t be leaning on it so much, because it will fade over time. Two, if he keeps getting hit like he did versus Baltimore he’s going to break down from all the punishment. (Mike Vick is somewhere nodding his head in pain) When you’re a running QB you make yourself a target. That’s why Vick takes so much punishment and never gets flags from the refs. Vick’s always been looked at almost like a running back and those guys have a shelf life of like two-and-a-half years. Running QB’s have never really had success on that championship level. Steve Young was the best “running QB” but he didn’t become great until teams started being more concerned about his arm than his legs. Young was great on the move but he was nowhere near the athlete RG3 is. The key (and NO ONE SEEMS TO KNOW THIS OR SAY IT AT LEAST) to being a successful running QB is making the defense “forget” you can run. The best runs for QB’s come on the plays when the defense as no clue it was about to happen. The legs are the first thing defense’s worry about with RG3, but if he can flip that to his arm being the number one priority to gameplan for, oh boy! Now when you’re someone with RG3’s speed, that’s going to be hard to do, but if he does it and just enough to where passing becomes the first thing you worry about with him, he’ll be unstoppable. Like literally can’t do anything against him, 300 yards passing, 100 yard rushing, 4 total TDs a game, video game stats, unstoppable.

Russell Wilson

Team Record (9-5)

Key Stats: 95.5 PR, 2,697 PY, 21 TDs, 9 INTs, 403 RY, 3 RTD’s

This guy is the biggest surprise in the NFL this year outside of Peyton and Peterson returning to form. If Russell Wilson is 6’4”, he’s drafted 3^rd overall in the 2012 NFL draft. By all accounts, he’s a hard worker and a great leader. He’s a smart kid. I didn’t say, “by all accounts he’s a smart kid” because even I know that. How do I know you say? Simple really. He learned and mastered three different offenses, with three different coaches, in three different places, with three different personnel groups, at three different levels of competition, in three years. Wilson went from NC State, to Wisconsin, to Seattle in three years and played at an elite level with each team. Folks I got news for you, no dummy’s pulling that one off. Now he’s got the leadership, the brains, and he doesn’t have the size but he’s got the one other tool you HAVE TO HAVE. He can throw it. (Tebow is missing the arm and that’s why he’s not playing right now. He can’t throw. Cut and Dry. You can be missing one, hell any if not ALL of those other things, and STILL play in this league. See John Skelton, Brady Quinn, and Matt Cassel.) Drew Brees proved that if you have the proper arm talent, with the brains and leadership, your size means nothing. And like Brees, Wilson’s a smart natural-born leader with the arm strength to make any throw on the field. Teams are going to be kicking themselves for years for passing on Wilson.

Unlike, RG3 or Luck, Wilson’s team is ready to win now. Like win a Super Bowl this year win now. (Bill Simmons called this one first) The defense is top tier, they play great special teams, they can run the ball, they rush the passer, I mean they do it all. Plus, their offense’s finally clicking and at a whole other level no less. Wilson has been on fire during his last six games to the tune of 11 TDs (plus 3 rushing TDs) and 1 INT. So he’s red-hot when you want him to be and he’s not turning the ball over like he was in the beginning of the season. They’ve put up 50 plus points in back-to-back games, something that’s happened only two times in NFL history. (Important Note: Seattle did this against the Cardinals and the Bills, who aren’t worth a hill of beans, and their defense added a few of those TDs but still 50 points is 50 points and your offense has to be playing well for you to even get close to 50)

Because of the team around him, Wilson's ceiling seems a lot higher this season.

In the end, I like Russell Wilson a lot but I’d still take Luck or RG3 over him, as I’m sure most people would, but I’ll leave you with this thought. Luck and RG3 can have all the regular season glory, they can be listed ahead of him in this post, they can fight over who’s the rookie of the year, but Wilson very well could be above them both in the category that means the most: Super Bowl victories.

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