He Who Laughs Last...

Seattle Seahawks QB Russell Wilson raises the Vince Lombardi trophy.
This may not be the last time you see this.

Well some months ago, before the NFL ushered in a new season. Before the first ball was passed, ran, caught or fumbled. Before a single play was executed or touchdown was scored I picked the Denver Broncos to lose to the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII. I was right.

Funny thing is, I picked them, the Seahawks, last season. There was just something about their rookie QB, Russell Wilson that I loved. I loved his story. I loved his fight and will to overcome things. Dude had gone from NC State to Wisconsin to Seattle, mastered EACH system and became the starter in EACH place. Nevermind that he was a 3rd round draft pick, or that he was suppose to be too short, or that Seattle had just paid Matt Flynn. Wilson still managed to win over coach Pete Carroll enough that he got the job over assumed starter Matt Flynn. The best man plays in Seattle and the best man played when Wilson took over. I predicted that while Andrew Luck may be better and RG3 may get more press, that Wilson had the better collection of overall talent surrounding him and that he would get a ring first. I was right.

I was only wrong last season when I picked the Broncos because I didn’t factor in Black Jesus Ray Lewis retired and I didn't realize how much that was going to motivate the Baltimore Ravens. I was only wrong about the Seahawks last season because they lacked the one thing they need most… Experience. But after a victory over RG3 and Washington in round one and after a near win/close loss to the Falcons in round two, Seattle had all the experience they would need for this season. I figured they’d come back next year just as hungry and with the added experience, I figured only injuries could stop them. I picked Denver again because I saw how weak the AFC was and I figured cream would rise to the top. I was right. 

 

Manning never got in groove against Seattle's D.

Seattle did to Denver what they did all season long. They dominated. From the opening snap, Peyton Manning and Denver's record setting offense was under siege and over matched. Last night MetLife sounded more like Century Link 2.0. If one play has ever spelled doom for a team that safety was it for the Broncos. Winning teams DON’T start games like that. They just don’t.  Especially Super Bowl winning teams. Seattle’s defense played old school, cliché football. They were fast. They were physical. They were hard-nosed, smash-mouth and then some. Honestly, the real Super Bowl was two weeks again in Seattle. Because the only team that had a chance to beat Seattle was San Francisco. Both teams, Seattle or San Fran, would have manhandled the Broncos. I was right.

Seattle reigns supreme over the NFL and it’s early, but I can’t see why I wouldn’t pick them to do it again next season. Sure it’s hard to do, you know win back-to-back titles and no team since the Patriots in '03 - '04 have pulled it off, but the Seahawks have something on their side those Pats didn’t; youth. Seattle is the 2^nd youngest team to ever win the title. Of the 4 youngest squads to do it, (1981 49ers, 1974 Steelers, 1985 Bears and 2014 Seahawks) only the 1985 Bears didn’t win multiple titles and some say the 1986 team was actually a better team than the legendary '85 Bears.

 

Pete Carroll joined elite company as he became just one of three coaches
to win both a national title and a Super Bowl title.

Seattle still has the benefit of getting elite QB play without having to pay for it. That will change as Russell Wilson is going to command a $100 million plus contract when this "cheapo" deal is up. Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and a few other key players have yet to be paid what they’re worth as well. Soon they all will get paid and things in Seattle will before more difficult, but for now it doesn’t matter. Congratulations to Seattle and thanks for making me look so right and for giving me this video to play for my brother until the end of time. (Skip to 29:13) He who laughs last ALWAYS laughs the loudest.

The Weekend That Was (Wildcard Weekend Recap)

Houston Texans 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 13

I picked Houston to win this game but I wasn’t totally confident in them because I didn’t trust Matt Schaub. But I didn’t trust Andy Dalton more. It was kind of like asking me to choose between a punch to the face or a kick to the “boys”. Either way, this is going to hurt and I’m not going to be happy with my decision. Schaub sucked but Dalton sucked that much more on Saturday. Nice season for Cincy but they just didn’t have what it takes to win a playoff game on the road, even if Gary Kubiak was coaching the opponent. Marvin Lewis had a great defensive gameplan to stop Schaub and Andre Johnson, but Arian Foster and his 32 carries and 140 yards killed the Bengals. Andy Dalton never looked comfortable and he played that way. He completed 14 of 30 passes and only averaged 4.2 yards per completion. You don’t need to do math to tell thats less than 50 percent right? The Bengals were 0 for 9 on 3^rd downs and only mustarded up 198 yards of total offense. I knew they’d struggle to score and that’s why I didn’t pick them. All the Bengals had was AJ Green and he could only do so much.

Next Up: The Patriots smoked Houston at Foxborough, 42-14 (And it wasn’t even that close.) in week 14, in what Houston called, “the biggest game in franchise history”.  Well I’d surmise to say this game is a lot more important. If Marvin Lewis, a guy that's never won a playoff game as a head coach mind you, can out coach Kubiak what do you think Belichick does, having had two weeks to prepare for the Texans.

Green Bay Packers 24 – Minnesota Vikings 10

“Joe Webb is a real x-factor” words said BY NO ONE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. If I didn’t have faith in a guy with “Christ” in his first name, why the hell would I have any in a guy that didn’t throw a single pass all year long? I couldn’t believe the way Criss Collinsworth was talking up Joe Webb in NBC’s pregame broadcast. C’mon son, like he really had a shot to win. That was the greatest sell job since Daniel Day-Lewis tricked people out of their land in There Will Be Blood. I’d officially like to nominate Collinsworth for this year’s Best Actor Academy Award. Backups are backups because they suck. All you need to know about Joe Webb is this; no matter how bad it got, (And it got REALLY, REALLY BAD AT TIMES) Joe Webb COULDN’T beat out Christian “If I were wearing a Jets #6 you’d think I was Mark Sanchez” Ponder. NOT EVEN FOR A GAME, A HALF, OR A SINGLE DRIVE did Joe Webb challenge Christian Ponder for his starting job. Not much to say about Green Bay other than they had seen enough of Adrian Peterson to figure out a way to finally stop him. (He only ran for 99 yards and his longest rush was for 18 yards.) Even with Ponder, Peterson needed to go “Super Saiyan” for the Vikings to have a chance. The Packers bottled him up all night and forced Joe Webb to beat them. The Packers look just like they did in 2010 when everyone got healthy at year’s end and they won it all. Rodgers picked the Vikings apart all night to the tune of passing to a record ten different receivers in a playoff game. Green Bay looks ready to go and they have the best QB left on the NFC side of the playoffs by miles.

Next Up: The 49ers beat the Packers in Week One but I gave that no thought when I was picking this game. If Russell Wilson and Tom Brady could find holes in that San Francisco defense, you got to think Rodgers would. I’m still not sure if I trust Colin Kaepernick here. The more I think about it, I don’t. In the end, when a game feels like a toss up to me, I go with the QB I trust more. (See Cincy vs. Houston.)

Baltimore Ravens 24 - Indianapolis Colts 9

Ray Lewis playing his last game at home > Playing on the road for your cancer survivor head coach. Last week when I wrote that the Ravens would lose in the first round, I didn’t have the knowledge of Ray Lewis retiring before I made that pick. I still gave the Colts the edge for a few reasons. The Ravens looked like crap down the stretch, Andrew Luck stopped throwing INTs and even though I knew the crowd would be jazzed in the first quarter after Lewis’ pregame antics, I thought Indy would settle in, but I didn’t know it was going to be like this. (Hell, I wanted to hit somebody on Indianapolis after I saw it.) The Colts moved the ball pretty well (419 Total Yards vs. the Ravens 441) but they just couldn’t cash in with TDs. The Ravens showed a real commitment to running the ball by rushing for 172 yards on 32 carries. Anquan Boldin played out of his mind grabbing 5 receptions for 145 yards and one TD. When it’s all said and done, Ray Lewis’ passion and energy infused a level of urgency in the Ravens that I hadn’t seen in them all year long. I’ll save my thoughts on Ray Lewis’ career and legacy after the season, when, or IF he retires. (He better freaking retire. You don’t get to play THAT card more than once.) Ray Lewis, winner, champion, leader…cancer survivor… murderer? (Relax it’s a joke, it’s a joke!)

Next Up: I really wanted to see Luck go up against Peyton Manning but Ray Lewis going to Denver isn’t a bad consolation prize. Their "battles" were always legendary and its only fitting Lewis has to go through Manning to keep himself out of early retirement. The Ravens got man handled by the Broncos 34 to 17 back in week 15, but that was without Lewis and without this newfound motivation they have now. It’s an added dimension I didn’t know I'd have to account for but they aren’t going to be in Baltimore, where they feed off the AFC’s best home crowd. (Like I said, the Colts racked up a lot of yards, moved the ball easily and were on the field for 37 minutes but just they kept scoring FGs. Going out on a limb and saying Manning turns those into TDs.) The Broncos and the old Colts QB will be ready to go and I think the whole Raven’s team retiring wouldn’t help them get a win in Denver.

Seattle Seahawks 24 – Washington Redskins 14

This game will always be a great “what if” to me. I picked the Seahawks to win even before I knew RG3 wasn’t 100%. The Seahawks are the NFL’s most balanced team and I thought they had the athletes to contain RG3. He clearly wasn’t himself and the Redskins didn’t have a shot if he wasn’t the dual threat we’ve seen all year long. He looked even worst than he did last week. It’s clear the Redskins “sold their souls” to win against the Cowboys in the season finale and RG3 didn’t have enough to get it done on Sunday. RG3 is a grown man and if he says he’s good to go then you give him a chance to play. I don’t think Shanahan made a mistake by sticking with him because Griffin III said it himself, even when you’re healthy you’re taking a risk playing football. RG3 went on to say, he was the best option at QB for the Redskins and he was right. (People seem to forget that backup rookie QB Kirk Cousins had that great comeback against a then choking Ravens team and he played his only full game against the Browns.) Russell Wilson gets mad props for staying grounded and leading the Seahawks’ comeback. (24 unanswered points, 340+ Yards of offense after the 1^st quarter.) Even though RG3 was hurt, Seattle made the changes on defense to shut the Redskins out for the rest of the game and held them to 74 TOTAL YARDS after the 1^st quarter. That’s championship level defense right there and Wilson’s got to have all the confidence in the world now. The Seahawks aren’t going to be an easy out for anyone.

Next Up: It looks like the stars are aligning and we’re headed for a Green Bay vs. Seattle rematch at Lambeau Field because I have ZERO faith in the Atlanta Falcons at home. There’s a reason Bill Simmons and Cousin Sal have been "foaming at the mouth" to bet against them in the playoffs. The Falcons just aren’t a proven playoff team and for someone with the nickname “Matty Ice”, Matt Ryan hasn’t played very “icy” in the playoffs. (0-3 with more INTs than TDs and he hasn’t passed for over 200 yards in any of those losses.) The Seahawks have won seven straight now and will go into Atlanta being the first top-tier defense the Falcons have faced since week two against the Broncos. I’ll start believing in Atlanta when they give me a reason to and as of yet, they haven’t.

Ode to the Fallen – 1st Annual NFL Year-End Review: NFC PT. 1

Click Here for AFC PT. 2

Why do I love football? Because in one game, just one game, these are some of the things we saw: A late comeback, a pulse pounding last minute drive, a game-winning field goal, the Packers drop to the 3 seed and lose the first round-bye, the 49ers get the 2 seed and first round bye, a guy become the 7^th guy to rush for 2,000 yards, that same guy come just nine yards shy of the NFL rushing record, the Vikings make the playoffs and most importantly, THE BEARS MISS THE PLAYOFFS! All those things happened in ONE GAME! I love the NBA and I “like” MLB, (My team is the Chicago Cubs so I’ve been a little out on baseball lately.) but drama like that, only happens in the NFL. As the curtain closes on the 2012 NFL regular season, I’ll tell you the five biggest things I learned and I’ll give you my two-cents on each team. (Maybe more depending on the team of course. Jacksonville fans, it’s going to be two cents.)

1.     .      You got NO CHANCE if you don’t have a QB. Think about all the teams that really sucked this year. Outside of a few teams (And one had to be MY TEAM) with a “decent” QB, you could point to a total dumpster fire at the QB position as the main reason for a large amount of the trouble those teams ran into during 2012. When you see the way Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Robert Griffin III played this season, there’s no reason you can’t believe that your team can’t turn it around like that when you have the right guy pulling the trigger.
2.             Coaching matters a lot more than we thought. With every game the Saints lost, the amount they had to pay Sean Payton went up about a million dollars. With coaches like Andy Reid, Norv Turner, and Romeo Crennel finding new ways to lose games, the value of quality coaching is more evident then ever. (That and the fact that 7 head coaches got fired on the Monday after the season ended. You’d think the NFL was Enron the way teams were handing people their walking papers.)
3.             It’s becoming impossible to defend the middle of the field and play safety. With the NFL cracking down on hits to the head, it’s become almost a guaranteed flag if a guy gets hit too hard. Even when defenders led with their shoulders they were getting flagged this year. The referees clearly believe that if a guy gets hit hard and gets up slowly it’s a penalty, regardless if they can see what happened or not.
4.           The NFL totally blew the whole “BountyGate” thing. They never had a shred of “real” evidence against the players and even the old Commissioner, couldn’t let that slide like they, the NFL, thought he would. I do find the irony of Paul Tagliabue coming back and letting MORE players off the hook very sweet. (He’s someone who was always called out for being too soft on the players.)
5.             Real referees know what they’re doing. It’s the reason the Packers are playing this weekend. You just knew that game was coming back to haunt them.

NFC EAST

Washington Redskins (10-6) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

He's got a reason to be happy, as the Skins are
back in the playoff for the first time since 1999.

Simply put, the Redskins were so fun to watch this year. From his opening game, RG3 has been the league’s most electric player and must-see TV every time the Washington offense took the field. Having one seven straight games going into the playoffs, they’re definitely one of the league’s hottest teams. I credit the Shanahans for having the good sense to build their team’s offense around its best player. The Redskins ate teams alive all year with that spread option and no one's quite figured out how to stop it. I’ll be really interested to see them in the playoffs.  It’s the first time since the 1940’s that a team’s going into the playoffs with two rookies as it’s leading passer and rusher. Not bad for a team that had it’s own coach call them toast a few weeks ago.

New York Giants (9-7) Missed Playoffs

Hey, you know that really cool thing the Giants do every year where they “flip a switch”, get hot down the stretch and win the Super Bowl? Yeah, they didn’t do that this year. The Giants took that “wait till the playoffs” thing a bit too far this season. Eli didn’t look close to the Eli of last year. (Last year, he set an NFL record for the most 4^th quarter touchdowns in a season and threw for almost 5,000 yards. If it weren’t for the “other” QBs in New York he would have gotten crushed. He should send Sanchez and Tebow a freaking thank you cards.) The pass rush wasn’t nearly as dominant as it’s been in the pass few seasons and they honestly looked like a team that thought a little too highly of themselves. Funny thing, I’m sure this season motivates them to greatness next season, so look out in 2013.

Dallas Cowboys (8-8) Missed Playoffs

This look says it all.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The Cowboys play a season ending game that, if they win, gets them into the playoffs AND they lose said game. Let’s have an honest moment for a second; no one thought that the Cowboys were winning that game. It’s just not in their DNA. The Cowboys have been an accident waiting to happen all year long. (Pardon the pun because of thereal tragedy.) At the time of me writing this, they still have Tony Romo and Jason Garrett, and I don’t think either man gets them back to that Super Bowl level they want to be at. Their stadium always seems to be like a home game for the team they’re facing. Dez Bryant did finally play up to his potential though. He earned “warrior” status for playing the last few games with a broken finger. In the end, I’m not sure what the Cowboys need to do but they weren’t any closer to winning this year than they were last year. With Sean Payton getting locked up again by the Saints, I’m not sure there’s a “big” move to be made. I mean besides Jerry Jones stepping down and letting someone else run the team, but there's a better chance of me becoming the CEO of Apple than that happening.

Philadelphia Eagles (4-12) Missed Playoffs

You'll find a job, don't worry.

Damn, it seems like the Eagles should have been so much worst. Or at least they’re record should have been worst. Looking back at their schedule, they could have and SHOULD HAVE lost every game this season. Here are the winning scores of their four victories; 17-16 over Cleveland. (Needed a late TD to win.) 24-23 over Baltimore. (Needed another late TD to win.) 19-17 over the Giants. (Needed a late FG to win.) 23-21 over Jacksonville. (Needed a LAST PLAY OF THE GAME TD to win.) Four wins by a combined 6 points! Sadly, for all the “talent” they have I think they need a complete retooling of the roster. Anyone not named “McCoy” can get the hook if you ask me. All of the personal trouble he had to start the season aside, Andy Reid had to go. Sometimes you just need a new start and so does your team. This is the classic case of both parties needing a fresh start. Not sure who they get to take his place however. I’m sure he won’t be jobless very long and neither will his former QB Michael Vick because he’s out of Philly too. Vick was a turnover machine this year and I think we’re starting to see all of those hits finally take their toll on him. He can’t stay healthy, he doesn’t have the wheels he use to have, and he reads defenses about as well as a blind QB would. It’s going to be a long, long, offseason in Philly.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (11-5) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

This team looks scary good, lost to the Vikings not withstanding, and they honestly look primed for another championship run. Back in 2010, the Packers got healthy at the end of the season and rode that wave all the way to a Super Bowl. The defense is still super suspect and I don’t totally trust them to make a big stop when they need it. But the Packers do have the one thing on there team that no other team in the league has; Aaron “I can make any throw because I’m an alien and my arm isn’t from Earth” Rodgers. When you got the best QB in the league you always got a chance to win it all.

Minnesota Vikings (10-6) Wildcard, Playoff Berth

The rotting stinking corpse known as the 2012 Vikings were dragged into the playoffs by Superman. I mean Adrian Peterson. It seems like science has finally reached the point where they really can rebuild you and make you better. Peterson’s 2,097 rushing yards are second all-time and just 9 yards shy of the NFL record. All this, facing 8 to 9 man boxes and the opposing defenses’ complete and total knowledge that HE WAS GETTING THE BALL ON DAMN NEAR EVERYPLAY! That said, I don’t think the Vikings get past the Packers this weekend. Do you really think Christian Ponder wins a playoff game in Lambeau Field? (Only with the help of  “Christ” in his name that is.) Even though he’s been great all year and he was just great against them, I don’t see Peterson having another 200-yard day against Green Bay. Peterson may not have rush for the record but he ran the Vikings into the playoffs and he may have rushed himself into the league’s MVP award.

Chicago Bears (10-6) Missed Playoffs

It's a sad day when 10-6 gets you fired.

At first glance you’d think, “How can you fire a guy that was 10-6?” But looking deeper you’ll find out that the Bears only made the playoffs three times in Lovie Smith's nine seasons and only once in the last six. Ouch! Now in an economy like this, I normally wouldn’t say a “brother” should lose his job, but with a track record like that, no way was Lovie coming back. You can only change offensive coordinators so many times. I still like the pieces that the Bears have on the offensive side of the ball but the defense showed their age down the stretch and Jay Cultler got banged up again. Strange thing is, this team was once 7-1 and looking like a clear-cut Super Bowl contender. That seems like a really long time ago now.

Detroit Lions (4-12) Missed Playoffs

I’m a Lions fan and a friend asked me, “Hey what’s wrong with the Lions this year?” I laughed and said, “Nothing, they’re just the f***ing Lions!” The great season of a year ago didn’t fool me. Jim Schwartz survived the "bloodbath" on Monday but I’m not sure he should have. The Lions are incredibly undisciplined and that’s always a coaching problem. Although he did break a major receiving record, Calvin Johnson had the greatest garbage time stats season of all time. (Total empty calories in my opinion. ’11 Stats: 96 Catches 1,681 Yards and 16 TDs = 10 wins. ’12 Stats: 122 Catches 1,964 Yards 5 TDs = 4 wins.) I’m still not totally sold on Matt Stafford. He seems like he has all the physical tools to be a franchise QB, but that “it” factor seems to be missing. The Lions also need to improve their rushing attack to gain some balance on offense and upgrades on the defensive side of the ball wouldn’t hurt either. Never has a team seemed so close but yet so far.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (13-3) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

This team could have gone 16-0 and I still would not have believed in them. Atlanta’s been crushed too many times in the postseason for me to think anything they do in the regular season matters. Matt Ryan had a career year leading a very powerful aerial attack and he’s a borderline MVP candidate but they’re offense ranks 29^th in rushing. That’s a huge red flag going into the playoffs when you don’t have a QB named Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady. Michael Turner is a shell of a shell of himself. Their defense is in the top half of the BACK of the NFL. Never a “good” thing, but they did seem to make a lot of timely stops this season. In the end, a very nice season but we’ve heard it all before Atlanta. Go win a game in the “second-season” and I’ll start taking you more seriously.

Carolina Panthers (7-9) Missed Playoffs

The Panthers seemed like the same team they were a season ago. The record was close, 6-10 a year ago versus 7-9 and another four-game win streak to close out the year again. Like last year, it took the Panthers a whole season to figure out how to actually “win” games. After looking more like “Clark Kent” in the beginning of the season, Cam Newton seemed to get into a groove down the stretch, but it was a little too late. I’d like to see them add a weapon or two in the off-season. Maybe a receiver because Steve Smith is getting up there in age. The DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart dual backfield has “backfired” and their defense was only “okay”. Not bad or good but just “okay. That’s good enough to win games and I think their close but their “losing seven out of eight games during the middle of the season and then running off four victories to end the year” strategy doesn’t seem to be a winning formula. I know, crazy that that doesn’t work huh.

New Orleans Saints (7-9) Missed Playoffs

He changed his name to changed to Sean "Pay-Him".

This season has been like a bad dream that the Saints just couldn’t wake up from. “BountyGate” pretty much doomed them from the start. As I mentioned in the top-five things I learned, coaching is really important. No way you lose one of the best coaches in the league and still be a playoff team. There’s a reason those guys, NFL coaches that is, make more than any other coaches in any other sport. Two greatest examples of the importance of coaching; Sean Payton this year and Bill Belichick making Matt Cassel look like a Pro-Bowler back in 2008. To me, the Saints are fine. The defense was never that good and Brees just threw for 5,000 yards… again and 40 plus TDs… again. He’s the first and only guy to do that in back-to-back seasons. All the Saints need is their head coach back.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) Missed Playoffs

At one point this season I really, really liked the Bucs. They had the whole “new coach comes from college and turns the team around in one year” thing going for them with Greg Schiano. (Think Jim Harbaugh with the 49ers last season.) At one point, they were 6-4, riding a four-game winning streak, Josh Freeman was looking like a Pro Bowler and then the wheels came off. They lost five of their last 6 games and looked really bad doing it. (They lost 41-0 to the Saints. They couldn’t score a point against the worst defense in the league. 10 friends and I can score a field goal on the Saints.) They have some really nice pieces on offense and they have the number one defense against the run but they were dead last against the past. When Aqib Talib was traded it was only a matter of time until their secondary fell completely apart. Sure that up in the draft and I think we’re looking at a playoff team next season.

NFC West

San Francisco 49ers (11-4-1) Division Champions, Playoff Berth

The 49ers may have punched their ticket to the Super Bowl when they moved Colin Kaepernick into the starting QB spot. God love Alex Smith but he’s just not going to get the 49ers over the hump and they knew it. It takes some balls to move the QB with the 3^rd highest QB rating in the league at the time out of the starting lineup but I really think it was the best move. Kaepernick makes you have to fear the 49ers offense a lot more than you would with Smith pulling the trigger. They have a top-five defense in all the key stats. (4^th against the pass and the run and 2^nd in points allowed.) That same defense did get “boat raced” by both Seattle and New England in back-to-back games at the end of the year but I still like them a lot. Not having to go to Seattle or Green Bay to win a playoff game really helps them and the taste of losing last year’s NFC Championship game still has to be motivating them.

Seattle Seahawks (11-5) Wildcard, Playoff Berth

Wilson and the Seahawks look ready to roll.

I really, really want to have the guts to say that the Seahawks are going to win the Super Bowl. I love their defense. 6^th against the pass, 10^th against the rush and 1^st in points allowed. They can run the ball. 3^rd in rushing and Lynch finished 3^rd in rushing in the league. I love their QB. Russell Wilson, not Luck or RG3, finished with the most passing TDs for rookie QB. Seattle was in every game this season and they didn’t get blown out all year. The only, and I mean ONLY, reason I’m not picking them is they have to go on the road to win the Super Bowl as a wildcard team. That home-field advantage in Seattle is crazy. It’s almost college like. If they were at home they’d win it all or at least get there. I love their team and I LOVE Russell Wilson, but no way I’m picking a rookie QB to lead a wildcard team to the Super Bowl. I do think he can lead them past the Redskins. Both teams run a similar style of offense but I give the edge to the Seahawks because they have a better defense.

St. Louis Rams (7-8-1) Missed Playoffs

The Rams looked “okay” this season. A lot better than last year that’s for sure. I really like how they responded to Jeff Fisher as their head coach. He took a team that was at the back of the NFL last year and moved them into the middle of the pack. (18^th in passing, 19^th in rushing, 15^th against the pass and run.) But all I’ll say is click on this link and read the first paragraph about RG3 and the Rams.

Arizona Cardinals (5-11) Missed Playoffs

This team authored some of the worst, no, THE WORST quarterbacking I’ve ever seen at ANY level of football in my life. I really felt like I was going to see Larry Fitzgerald snap and start choking the QBs in the huddle at some point this season. They were the second worst team I saw all year long. (And yes, the Lions lost to them, snapping their nine-game losing streak. I need to stop now before I start ranting about the Lions again. UGH! I HATE THE LIONS!) I’m not totally sure Ken Whisenhunt should have been fired because he’s a good coach that's been saddled with really bad quarterbacks. You got to remember, when he had Kurt Warner the Cards made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons including a run to the Super Bowl.  Mind you, a Super Bowl that they almost won. He led the Arizona Cardinals to a Super Bowl! (RE READ THAT LAST SENTENCE.) I like a few of their pieces on defense, especially Patrick Peterson but they need a complete retooling on the offensive side of the ball. Dead last in rushing and 28^th in passing. I mean they need so many new parts on the offensive side of the ball it’s almost comical and a new QB is number one on that "needs list". Check the top of this post. NO QB… NO CHANCE IN HELL… PERIOD.

Thanks for reading and don't forget to subscribe and share the blog. Join in the discussion by leaving a comment below. Follow me on twitter @ParisLay. Until next time... Enjoy the View!

Click Here for AFC PT. 2

Party Like it's 1983

Brandon Weeden

Andrew Luck

Robert Griffin III (RG3)

Ryan Tannenhill

Russell Wilson

The 2012 NFL season has been pretty great so far. As a Lions fan, it hasn’t been that great for me personally, but as a fan of the game, it’s been a really, really good season. There were so many juicy subplots to start the season. Manning getting let go by the Colts. Manning going to the Broncos. The Giants trying to repeat as champions. Luck or RG3. Tebow going to the Jets. Peterson coming back from an ACL tear. The Redskins moving up and going all-in to get RG3.  Five rookie quarterbacks starting on week one. The new coaches in new places. The old coaches on short leashes and so many more. After 15 weeks, some storylines have panned out and some not so much. Manning has been his old self, if not better than his last few years. Peterson HAS been better than his old self. Tebow has been a total non factor but the best subplot of the season has been by far the great play of the rookie quarterbacks. Hell, even a backup rookie QB joined in the fun this week. (Kirk Cousins in the place of RG3: 26 of 37, 329 Yards, 2 TDs one pick, a QBR of 104.4, but most importantly one win to put the Redskins in a 3-way tie atop the NFC East.)

This crop of rookie QBs has been all-world, all time good. I mean, I even voted for 3 rookies to make the Pro Bowl this year. (RG3, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson) The rookie’s teams have a combined 37 victories, which is a record this late into the season, all have at least 5 wins and each one has shown flashes of brilliance. If your team is the Colts, Seahawks or Redskins you’re over the moon. If you’re a Miami or Cleveland fan, you gotta feel like this season has gone much better than you thought and your guy looks like he really may be the guy for the future. And if you’re not happy, look at it like this, you could be the Chiefs or worst…gulp… you could be the Cardinals. It’s Week 15 and 3 rookies, which all started on week one, have their teams on the verge of making the playoffs how can I NOT talk about that.

Andrew Luck

Team Record (9-5)

Key Stats: 74.5 PR (Passer Rating), 3,978 PY (Passing Yards), 20 TDS, 18 INTs

The success of the Colt’s 2012 season can be due to some many different factors. Peyton Manning (If he doesn’t miss the whole season and I MEAN THE WHOLE SEASON, no way the Colts lose enough games to get the number one overall pick), the 2011 Colts, (for sucking so bad they got the number one overall pick) Peyton Manning’s neck, Peyton Manning’s first botched neck surgery (forced him to miss the whole season), Chuck Pagano’s cancer. (THAT’S A JOKE, THAT’S A JOKE, lighten up! All I’m saying is if he’s healthy, no way the players rally the way they have. Your  head coach having cancer is a surefire way to motivate them. Norv Turner is somewhere wishing he’d doctored the results of his yearly physical right now.) But I’m giving the lion’s share to the QB. It’s a quarterback league. They get all the blame for things go sideways, but they also gotta get the big piece of chicken when things go right.

Luck after one of the Colt's six comeback wins this year.

I know Luck has been a turnover machine this year, (18 INTs and 10 Fumbles, he leads the league in turnovers) but he’s asked to throw it a lot more than the other two guys I’m going to talk about. (Wilson has 353 PA, RG3 has 351 PA compared to Luck’s 564 PA) Although Wilson and RG3 have had the training wheels pulled off for a few weeks now, Luck got put on a ten-speed and pushed down a steep hill, with no helmet or kneepads and told “Good Luck” (no pun intended) from week one. He’s been asked to lead and be the best player on his team since he got to Indy. And let’s face it, he’s leading a team that won two games last year into the playoffs and you can’t say enough about that. He’s already won more games that any other number one pick has in their rookie year and he is among the league leaders in comeback victories with six. That tells you two very important things about him. One, he can turn the ball over a million times and come back from it and two, he isn’t afraid of the big moment. If the games within striking distance, Luck’s teammates trust him with the ball and his ability to make a big play when it counts and his opponents know he’s very capable of pulling the horseshoe on his helmet outta his butt and beating them over the head with it. (As I Lions fan, I know this all too well.)

One “red flag” if you can call it that, is his turnovers. Of the 36 qualifying QBs, he ranks 31. His name is flanked by the likes of such “legends” as Matt Cassel, John Skelton, Mark Sanchez, and Brandon Weeden. Ouch. But again, he’s a rookie. That’s what they do. They make mistakes and turn the ball over. Let’s not forget that the guy he replaced in Indy threw 28 in his rookie year and we all know he turned out to be just fine. Rookies nowadays are just victims of their own success. The timetable on when you can reasonably expect winning results with a rookie quarterback is now in year one, given their recent winning ways and the rule changes that make passing the ball about as hard as playing catch in your backyard. If I were given the choice between Luck and RG3, I would always take Luck. He’s bigger, has a better NFL QB pedigree (Mannings have proven it matters), he’s more athletic then he gets credit for (He’s athleticism will always be judged against RG3 which is totally not fair, because its like comparing a Dodge Charger to a Ferrari 458. Both are fast cars but one’s just a tiny bit faster) and he’s the classic, egghead, film room junkie, drop-back, pocket-passer. He’s just a safer bet to stay healthy and his style will ALWAYS work. If you’re smart and you can throw it you’ll do fine in the NFL. Two things Luck has in spades.

Robert Griffin III

Team Record (8-6)* (Kirk Cousins started and won one game…so far because RG3 still hasn’t been clear to play next Sunday)

Key Stats: 104.2 PR, 2,902 PY, 18 TDS, 4 INT, 748 RY (Rushing Yards) 6 RTD

Story time, say I’m at this sushi place and I’m not sure what to get. My friend is like get the California Roll. Not a bad choice, because it’s a safe bet at any sushi place. Not too exotic, it’s hard to screw up and you can’t go wrong with what’s tried and true. I look at the menu and there’s a picture of this spicy tuna tempura roll. It looks really good but I’m not too sure about getting it. My friend is like don’t do it. The waitress says it’s good, the picture looks good, so I say screw it and get the tuna roll.  The food gets to the table, I try the tuna roll and it’s amazing. My friend sees me grubbing out and asks to try one. He takes a bite and his eyes light up like he’s just bitten into the best thing he’s ever eaten, but he quickly hides it. He goes back to eating his California Roll and he’s like “Yeah it was pretty good I admit, but this California Roll is pretty damn good too.” That’s what the St. Louis Ram fans are like right now. They got a regular old California Roll when they could have had a spicy tuna tempura roll. Their jealous, they feel stupid and just like my friend is wishing I’m left with crippling diarrhea later, the Rams fans are hoping RG3 is only this good for right now and that he’ll fall on his face later. Thus proving that they were right to give up the number two pick and sticking with Bradford was the right choice, just like my friend hoped the California Roll was the right choice. (Both are the wrong choices by the way.)

RG3 has been the most exciting player to watch in the NFL by a country mile. I’ve watched more Redskins than any other team outside of my Lions and that’s only because of him. When the guy’s on the field, you can’t turn the channel. You know something amazing could happen every time the ball is in his hands. Be it with his arms or his legs, he’s a threat to score anywhere on the field. (RG3 and Cam Newton are the only guys like that because of their legs and arms. I would say Aaron Rogers, but he’s not that much of a threat with his legs from anywhere on the field compared to the two guys I just mentioned. He can get you a first down anytime scrambling however.  I say anywhere on the field with his arm and from the opponent’s 20 yard-line in, Rodgers is just as deadly with his wheels. Tom Brady and Peyton Manning are the only other “score anywhere on the field” arm guys.) RG3’s passer rating of 104.2 is tied for the league lead with TOM BRADY. A rookie, through Week 15 is tied with TOM BRADY IN PASSER RATING. That’s crazy to me.  (RG3 is leading now because of the annual stink bomb game Brady put up against the 49ers)

I give most of the credit for his success to the coaching staff in Washington however. I saw his first game and it was easy throw after easy throw. They really haven’t put the kid in too many situations to fail this year. The offense in Washington is really a hybrid NFL/college offense. The read option they run is devastating. The New York Giants defensive lineman couldn’t tell where to go, who had the ball or what type of play was going to happen next. (They played him twice, which should have been an advantage but looked even more lost the second time around.) Was RG3 going to keep it and run, keep it and throw it, or give it to the running back? I couldn’t tell from watching on TV, so just imagine what it was like watching it field level at full game speed. RG3 is the only player that could run it with that level of precision. He’s getting better at reading defenses although he’s not having to make 3^rd, 4^th, 5^th, receiver reads like Rodgers, Manning or Brady but he’s getting there. He doesn’t make the big mistake or that bone headed throw that just kills your team and you gotta love that the most about the guy.

RG3 better learn to slide better than this if he wants to last.

Here comes the “but” with RG3. For all the excitement he gives you, you’re left watching him on pins and needles. He runs a lot. And he runs a lot of designed QB run plays. When Michael Vick rush for 1,039 Yards (the first and only QB to rush for over 1,000 yards so far) in 2006, he did it off 123 rushing attempts and a lot of those were broken plays and scrambles. We have two games left, he missed this week’s game and RG3 has carried the ball 112 times. That’s not good at all. Two things are going to happen over time and they’re the two reasons I’d take Luck over Griffin everyday. One, and this one will happen regardless if he ever rushes the ball again or not, he’s going to get slower. RG3’s legs are one of, if not the biggest, attraction about him. For someone so dependent on his athletic ability, he really shouldn’t be leaning on it so much, because it will fade over time. Two, if he keeps getting hit like he did versus Baltimore he’s going to break down from all the punishment. (Mike Vick is somewhere nodding his head in pain) When you’re a running QB you make yourself a target. That’s why Vick takes so much punishment and never gets flags from the refs. Vick’s always been looked at almost like a running back and those guys have a shelf life of like two-and-a-half years. Running QB’s have never really had success on that championship level. Steve Young was the best “running QB” but he didn’t become great until teams started being more concerned about his arm than his legs. Young was great on the move but he was nowhere near the athlete RG3 is. The key (and NO ONE SEEMS TO KNOW THIS OR SAY IT AT LEAST) to being a successful running QB is making the defense “forget” you can run. The best runs for QB’s come on the plays when the defense as no clue it was about to happen. The legs are the first thing defense’s worry about with RG3, but if he can flip that to his arm being the number one priority to gameplan for, oh boy! Now when you’re someone with RG3’s speed, that’s going to be hard to do, but if he does it and just enough to where passing becomes the first thing you worry about with him, he’ll be unstoppable. Like literally can’t do anything against him, 300 yards passing, 100 yard rushing, 4 total TDs a game, video game stats, unstoppable.

Russell Wilson

Team Record (9-5)

Key Stats: 95.5 PR, 2,697 PY, 21 TDs, 9 INTs, 403 RY, 3 RTD’s

This guy is the biggest surprise in the NFL this year outside of Peyton and Peterson returning to form. If Russell Wilson is 6’4”, he’s drafted 3^rd overall in the 2012 NFL draft. By all accounts, he’s a hard worker and a great leader. He’s a smart kid. I didn’t say, “by all accounts he’s a smart kid” because even I know that. How do I know you say? Simple really. He learned and mastered three different offenses, with three different coaches, in three different places, with three different personnel groups, at three different levels of competition, in three years. Wilson went from NC State, to Wisconsin, to Seattle in three years and played at an elite level with each team. Folks I got news for you, no dummy’s pulling that one off. Now he’s got the leadership, the brains, and he doesn’t have the size but he’s got the one other tool you HAVE TO HAVE. He can throw it. (Tebow is missing the arm and that’s why he’s not playing right now. He can’t throw. Cut and Dry. You can be missing one, hell any if not ALL of those other things, and STILL play in this league. See John Skelton, Brady Quinn, and Matt Cassel.) Drew Brees proved that if you have the proper arm talent, with the brains and leadership, your size means nothing. And like Brees, Wilson’s a smart natural-born leader with the arm strength to make any throw on the field. Teams are going to be kicking themselves for years for passing on Wilson.

Unlike, RG3 or Luck, Wilson’s team is ready to win now. Like win a Super Bowl this year win now. (Bill Simmons called this one first) The defense is top tier, they play great special teams, they can run the ball, they rush the passer, I mean they do it all. Plus, their offense’s finally clicking and at a whole other level no less. Wilson has been on fire during his last six games to the tune of 11 TDs (plus 3 rushing TDs) and 1 INT. So he’s red-hot when you want him to be and he’s not turning the ball over like he was in the beginning of the season. They’ve put up 50 plus points in back-to-back games, something that’s happened only two times in NFL history. (Important Note: Seattle did this against the Cardinals and the Bills, who aren’t worth a hill of beans, and their defense added a few of those TDs but still 50 points is 50 points and your offense has to be playing well for you to even get close to 50)

Because of the team around him, Wilson's ceiling seems a lot higher this season.

In the end, I like Russell Wilson a lot but I’d still take Luck or RG3 over him, as I’m sure most people would, but I’ll leave you with this thought. Luck and RG3 can have all the regular season glory, they can be listed ahead of him in this post, they can fight over who’s the rookie of the year, but Wilson very well could be above them both in the category that means the most: Super Bowl victories.

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